Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-0 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Wahda FC at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Al Wahda FC travel to Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium to take on Al-Ittihad Kalba. The game is scheduled for Monday 15 April 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba have posted 1W 4D 5L at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Wahda FC — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Wahda FC have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al Wahda FC are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 2, Al Wahda FC 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with Al Wahda FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Ittihad Kalba trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Al Wahda FC trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad Kalba 61% and Al Wahda FC 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 64% | Al Wahda FC 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.24 xG and Al Wahda FC 2.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.924 / defence 1.171 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.060 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.557 / away 1.810. Data: 44 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 44 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 20% | Draw 20% | Al Wahda FC 60%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 5.00 | Draw 5.00 | Al Wahda FC 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Al Wahda FC (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.24 / 2.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Wahda FC as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.48 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad Kalba 80% | Al Wahda FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 15 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 20% | Draw 20% | Al Wahda FC 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 64% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.24 / Al Wahda FC 2.25 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.924 / def 1.171 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.060 / def 0.859 | league avg home 1.557 / away 1.810 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
2.25
Al Wahda FC xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 15 April 2024 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 1 - 0 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 20% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 60% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Ittihad Kalba 2W | Draws 0 | Al Wahda FC 3W.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Ittihad Kalba's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Al Wahda FC's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wahda FC's attack versus Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence, projects 2.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
20%
5.02
20%
4.96
60%
1.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
0 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
3.48
2.25
Al Wahda FC xG
5.02
20%
Home win
4.96
20%
Draw
1.67
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
11%
9.45
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
2%
47.46
17%
5.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 2.25 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ittihad Kalba come into this having played 44 games, going 13W 11D 20L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Wahda FC sit at 1.95 PPG from 44 outings (25W 11D 8L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wahda FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of Al-Ittihad Kalba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home form reads 6W 5D 11L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Wahda FC have taken 2.18 points per game from 22 outings (15W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.91 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Al Wahda FC in 61%.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Al Wahda FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 13W 11D 20L in their last 44 games (1.14 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 25W 11D 8L in their last 44 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Al Wahda FC's away record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 1.05 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 2.18 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad Kalba or Al Wahda FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Al Wahda FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 9 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's record when hosting Al Wahda FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Ittihad Kalba
2
Draws
5
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 3, Al Wahda FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2026, when Al Wahda FC 2-2 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad Kalba 64%, Al Wahda FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Al-Ittihad Kalba) and 54% (Al Wahda FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC in 46%; Al-Ittihad Kalba have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Al Wahda FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 54% of Al Wahda FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's matches and 54% of Al Wahda FC's.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Al Wahda FC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ittihad Kalba defy the odds to beat Al Wahda FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad Kalba beat Al Wahda FC 1-0 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.24 xG and Al Wahda FC 2.25 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Wahda FC landed 2.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.92 / defence 1.17 against Al Wahda FC attack 1.06 / defence 0.86, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 20% | Draw 20% | Al Wahda FC 60%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Al-Ittihad Kalba win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 64%, Al Wahda FC 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Al-Ittihad Kalba winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.