Baniyas SC 2-2 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Baniyas SC face Al-Ittihad Kalba.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Baniyas SC welcome Al-Ittihad Kalba to Baniyas Stadium in Pro League (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 24 May 2025 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Baniyas SC — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Baniyas SC have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Baniyas SC) versus 1.00 (Al-Ittihad Kalba). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Baniyas SC's games and 80% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's (from Baniyas SC's last 10 home games and Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Baniyas SC have won 3, Al-Ittihad Kalba 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Jan 2025, ended Baniyas SC 1–0 Al-Ittihad Kalba — a Baniyas SC win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Baniyas SC in-play tendencies (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play tendencies (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Baniyas SC 59% and Al-Ittihad Kalba 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baniyas SC 61% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 1.40 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 0.892 / defence 1.335 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.997 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.501. Baniyas SC's defence rating of 1.335 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Ittihad Kalba's projected output up. Data: built from Baniyas SC's last 51 games and Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 51.
Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 27% | Draw 22% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 51%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 3.77 | Draw 4.50 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.95. Al-Ittihad Kalba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.40 / 2.00) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad Kalba at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.40 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Baniyas SC's last 10 home games and Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Baniyas SC 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ittihad Kalba 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, matchday 26 | Venue: Baniyas Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 May 2025 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baniyas SC 27% | Draw 22% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Baniyas SC 1.40 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Baniyas SC attack 0.892 / def 1.335 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.997 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.501 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Baniyas SC xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba FAQs
What time does Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 24 May 2025 at Baniyas Stadium.
What was the final score in Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Baniyas SC 2 - 2 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Baniyas Stadium.
What competition is Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Pro League fixture (matchday 26) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Baniyas SC a 27% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 51% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Baniyas SC's attack rating (0.89) and Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack versus Baniyas SC's defence, projects 2.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Baniyas SC's last 51 games and Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
27%
3.77
22%
4.50
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
6.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Baniyas SC xG
Total xG
3.40
2.00
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
3.77
27%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
14%
7.37
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
4%
27.79
13%
7.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Baniyas SC and 2.00 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Baniyas SC's recent record stands at 14W 10D 27L from 51 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Al-Ittihad Kalba, meanwhile, have gone 14W 15D 22L across 51 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baniyas SC on 1.02 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Baniyas SC have managed 8W 7D 10L from their last 25 home games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record stands at 7W 8D 10L across their last 25 away games, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Baniyas SC are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.49 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba in 69%.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baniyas SC
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Baniyas SC (Home) vs Al-Ittihad Kalba (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Baniyas SC
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
❓ Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba Form FAQs
What form are Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Baniyas SC have gone 14W 10D 27L in their last 51 games (1.02 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 14W 15D 22L in their last 51 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baniyas SC at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Baniyas SC's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baniyas SC at home: 1.24 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from January 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 23 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Baniyas SC's record when hosting Al-Ittihad Kalba specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Baniyas SC
3
Draws
3
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Baniyas SC have won 4, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 April 2026: Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-2 Baniyas SC.
Who has won more matches between Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Baniyas SC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Baniyas SC at 64%, Al-Ittihad Kalba at 72%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Baniyas SC and 68% for Al-Ittihad Kalba. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baniyas SC have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baniyas SC home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Baniyas SC's games and 72% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Baniyas SC's matches and 68% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's.
Do Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Baniyas SC's recent matches and 72% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 26, as Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba drew 2-2 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.40 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.00 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 0.89 / defence 1.33 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.00 / defence 1.04, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 27% | Draw 22% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 51%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 61%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baniyas SC's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baniyas SC 1.02 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.