Al Bataeh 1-3 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Wahda FC at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Al Wahda FC travel to Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium to take on Al Bataeh. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 May 2025, 15:10 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Bataeh — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Bataeh have posted 2W 3D 5L at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Wahda FC stand at 5W 5D 0L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Wahda FC have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Bataeh at 1.60 PPG versus Al Wahda FC's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Al Bataeh have won 2, Al Wahda FC 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2025, ended 2–0 with Al Bataeh winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al Bataeh in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Al Wahda FC in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Bataeh 67% and Al Wahda FC 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Bataeh 63% | Al Wahda FC 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 0.99 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 0.790 / defence 1.053 | Al Wahda FC attack 0.992 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.501. Al Bataeh's attack strength of 0.790 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 51 Al Bataeh games / 51 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 23% | Draw 26% | Al Wahda FC 50%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | Al Wahda FC 2.00. Al Wahda FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Wahda FC are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Al Bataeh 60% | Al Wahda FC 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 May 2025, 15:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Bataeh 23% | Draw 26% | Al Wahda FC 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Al Bataeh 0.99 / Al Wahda FC 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Al Bataeh attack 0.790 / def 1.053 | Al Wahda FC attack 0.992 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.501 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Al Bataeh xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Al Wahda FC xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 15:10 on Sunday 25 May 2025 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC?
Al Bataeh 1 - 3 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What competition is Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Bataeh a 23% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC?
Record (5 meetings): Al Bataeh 2W | Draws 0 | Al Wahda FC 3W.
What form are Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC in?
Al Bataeh (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Bataeh's attack rating (0.79) and Al Wahda FC's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wahda FC's attack versus Al Bataeh's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
23%
4.28
26%
3.82
50%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Al Bataeh xG
Total xG
2.56
1.57
Al Wahda FC xG
4.28
23%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
1.98
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
5%
20.55
19%
5.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 12.2 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Al Bataeh and 1.57 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Bataeh come into this having played 51 games, going 17W 13D 21L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Wahda FC sit at 1.71 PPG from 51 outings (24W 15D 12L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wahda FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Al Bataeh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al Bataeh's home form reads 6W 8D 11L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Wahda FC have taken 1.56 points per game from 25 outings (11W 6D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Bataeh are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.82 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Bataeh have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Al Wahda FC in 63%.
Last 51 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Bataeh
Blended
Al Wahda FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Al Bataeh have gone 17W 13D 21L in their last 51 games (1.25 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 24W 15D 12L in their last 51 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Bataeh at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Al Wahda FC's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Bataeh at home: 1.04 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Oct 2022, when Al Wahda FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Bataeh's record when hosting Al Wahda FC specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al Bataeh
1
Draws
5
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Bataeh have won 2, Al Wahda FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2026, when Al Wahda FC 2-2 Al Bataeh.
Who has won more matches between Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Bataeh 72%, Al Wahda FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Al Bataeh) and 52% (Al Wahda FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Bataeh home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Bataeh play Al Wahda FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Al Bataeh's games and 52% of Al Wahda FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Al Bataeh's matches and 52% of Al Wahda FC's.
Do Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC tend to score early?
Al Bataeh have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al Wahda FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wahda FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Bataeh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Al Bataeh 1-3 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 0.99 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.57 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al Wahda FC outscored their 1.57 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 0.79 / defence 1.05 against Al Wahda FC attack 0.99 / defence 0.82, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 23% | Draw 26% | Al Wahda FC 50%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 63%, Al Wahda FC 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Bataeh's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.