Al-Wasl FC 4-2 Dibba Al-Fujairah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Wasl FC at 69% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Wasl FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Dibba Al-Fujairah travel to Zabeel Stadium to take on Al-Wasl FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 April 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Wasl FC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Wasl FC have posted 6W 3D 1L at Zabeel Stadium — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Zabeel Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Al-Wasl FC are significantly better at Zabeel Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Dibba Al-Fujairah have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Dibba Al-Fujairah have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Al-Wasl FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Al-Wasl FC have won 2, Dibba Al-Fujairah 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Dec 2025, ended 3–1 with Al-Wasl FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Wasl FC in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games).
Dibba Al-Fujairah in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Wasl FC 54% versus Dibba Al-Fujairah 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Wasl FC 41% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Wasl FC 2.04 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Wasl FC attack 0.987 / defence 0.636 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.763 / defence 1.465. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.399. Dibba Al-Fujairah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.465 — this is suppressing Al-Wasl FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Wasl FC's defence rating of 0.636 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Al-Wasl FC games / 22 Dibba Al-Fujairah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 69% | Draw 20% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 11%. Fair-value odds: Al-Wasl FC 1.45 | Draw 5.00 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Al-Wasl FC (69%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Wasl FC are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Wasl FC 40% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Wasl FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Zabeel Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 24 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 69% | Draw 20% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 43% | xG Al-Wasl FC 2.04 / Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Wasl FC attack 0.987 / def 0.636 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.763 / def 1.465 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Al-Wasl FC (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Al-Wasl FC xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
43%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Wasl FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kick off?
Al-Wasl FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 24 April 2026 at Zabeel Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Wasl FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Al-Wasl FC 4 - 2 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Where is Al-Wasl FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah being played?
The match is being played at Zabeel Stadium.
What competition is Al-Wasl FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah part of?
Al-Wasl FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Wasl FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Wasl FC a 69% chance of winning, Dibba Al-Fujairah a 11% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Wasl FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Wasl FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Al-Wasl FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Wasl FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Wasl FC 2W | Draws 1 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 0W.
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah in?
Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Wasl FC's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Dibba Al-Fujairah's defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.04. The same calculation in reverse, Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack versus Al-Wasl FC's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 1-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Wasl FC Win
69%
1.45
20%
5.06
11%
9.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Al-Wasl FC xG
Total xG
2.72
0.68
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
1.45
69%
Home win
5.06
20%
Draw
9.00
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
13%
7.70
Win to Nil
35%
2.85
1%
69.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.7 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Wasl FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Al-Wasl FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Al-Wasl FC and 0.68 for Dibba Al-Fujairah, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Wasl FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Wasl FC's recent record stands at 10W 6D 6L from 22 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dibba Al-Fujairah, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 13L across 22 games — 0.77 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Dibba Al-Fujairah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Wasl FC by 0.87 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dibba Al-Fujairah heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Wasl FC have managed 7W 3D 1L from 11 games — 2.18 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.64 PPG overall — Al-Wasl FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's away record stands at 1W 3D 7L across 11 trips, a 0.55 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Wasl FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Wasl FC are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Dibba Al-Fujairah are on 0.95 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah in coming into this match?
Al-Wasl FC have gone 10W 6D 6L in their last 22 games (1.64 PPG), while Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 4W 5D 13L in their last 22 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Wasl FC at home or Dibba Al-Fujairah away?
Al-Wasl FC's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Wasl FC at home: 2.18 PPG; Dibba Al-Fujairah away: 0.55 PPG.
Have Al-Wasl FC or Dibba Al-Fujairah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Dibba Al-Fujairah in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Wasl FC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Al-Wasl FC's record when hosting Dibba Al-Fujairah specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Al-Wasl FC
1
Draws
0
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Wasl FC have won 3, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Wasl FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Al-Wasl FC 4-2 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Wasl FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Wasl FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Dibba Al-Fujairah see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Wasl FC 36%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Al-Wasl FC) and 54% (Dibba Al-Fujairah).
On the defensive side: Al-Wasl FC keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Dibba Al-Fujairah in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Wasl FC home games / Dibba Al-Fujairah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Wasl FC play Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Al-Wasl FC's recent matches and 54% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Wasl FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Al-Wasl FC's recent games and 54% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Al-Wasl FC cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Dibba Al-Fujairah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Wasl FC beat Dibba Al-Fujairah 4-2 at Zabeel Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Wasl FC 2.04 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.68 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Al-Wasl FC beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dibba Al-Fujairah outscored their 0.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Wasl FC attack 0.99 / defence 0.64 against Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.76 / defence 1.47, drawn from 48/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Wasl FC 69% | Draw 20% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 11%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Wasl FC 41%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.77. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dibba Al-Fujairah (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.