Al-Wasl FC 1-1 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Wahda FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 4 as Al-Wasl FC welcome Al Wahda FC to Zabeel Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 September 2021 at 15:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Wasl FC have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 outings — a 1.33 PPG return. Last five: W D L. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Wasl FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Wahda FC — All Games: 1W 2D 0L from 3 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.67 PPG. Last five: W D D. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 0.33. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al Wahda FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Wasl FC at 1.33 PPG versus Al Wahda FC's 1.67. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Al-Wasl FC trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
Al Wahda FC trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Wasl FC 67% versus Al Wahda FC 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Wasl FC 33% | Al Wahda FC 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Wasl FC 0.84 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Wasl FC attack 0.911 / defence 1.173 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.009 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.024 / away 0.975. Data: 3 Al-Wasl FC games / 3 Al Wahda FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 23% | Draw 38% | Al Wahda FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Al-Wasl FC 4.35 | Draw 2.63 | Al Wahda FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Wahda FC as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 38% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.99 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Wasl FC 67% | Al Wahda FC 33%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Zabeel Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 23% | Draw 38% | Al Wahda FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 43% | xG Al-Wasl FC 0.84 / Al Wahda FC 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Wasl FC attack 0.911 / def 1.173 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.009 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.024 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Al-Wasl FC xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Al Wahda FC xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 15:45 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Zabeel Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Al-Wasl FC 1 - 1 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Zabeel Stadium.
What competition is Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Wasl FC a 23% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 39% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Al-Wasl FC and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Al Wahda FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Al Wahda FC in?
Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-D-L. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 1W-2D-0L in 3 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 0.33 | L5 W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Wasl FC's attack rating (0.91) and Al Wahda FC's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wahda FC's attack versus Al-Wasl FC's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
23%
4.43
38%
2.61
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Al-Wasl FC xG
Total xG
1.99
1.16
Al Wahda FC xG
4.43
23%
Home win
2.61
38%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
7%
14.08
17%
5.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 15.8 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Al-Wasl FC and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Al-Wasl FC and 1.16 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 3 outings, Al-Wasl FC have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 1W 1D 1L record — W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Wahda FC's form line: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Wasl FC on 1.33 PPG, Al Wahda FC on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Wasl FC are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.67 scored and 0.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Wasl FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Wasl FC
Early Season
Al Wahda FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Al-Wasl FC have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 1W 2D 0L in their last 3 (1.67 PPG).
Have Al-Wasl FC or Al Wahda FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al Wahda FC in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Wasl FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 May 2024, when Al Wahda FC won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Wasl FC's record when hosting Al Wahda FC specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Wasl FC
6
Draws
2
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Al Wahda FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Wasl FC have won 2, Al Wahda FC have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Al-Wasl FC and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2026, when Al Wahda FC 2-3 Al-Wasl FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Wahda FC see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Wasl FC 67%, Al Wahda FC 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Al-Wasl FC and 33% for Al Wahda FC.
On the defensive side: Al-Wasl FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al Wahda FC in 67%; Al Wahda FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Wasl FC home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Wasl FC play Al Wahda FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Al-Wasl FC's recent matches and 33% of Al Wahda FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Wasl FC vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al-Wasl FC's recent games and 33% of Al Wahda FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Wasl FC and Al Wahda FC tend to score early?
Al-Wasl FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Wahda FC in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Wasl FC and Al Wahda FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Zabeel Stadium, Regular Season - 4, as Al-Wasl FC and Al Wahda FC drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Wasl FC 0.84 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.16 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Wasl FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.17 against Al Wahda FC attack 1.01 / defence 0.90, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Wasl FC 23% | Draw 38% | Al Wahda FC 39%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Wasl FC 33%, Al Wahda FC 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Wasl FC 1.33 PPG, Al Wahda FC 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.