Al-Wasl FC 1-0 Al Nasr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Wasl FC at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Wasl FC vs Al Nasr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Al Nasr travel to Zabeel Stadium to take on Al-Wasl FC. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 13 February 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Wasl FC — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Wasl FC's home record at Zabeel Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Nasr stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Nasr have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Al-Wasl FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al-Wasl FC, 2 for Al Nasr and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2023, ended 2–0 with Al-Wasl FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Wasl FC in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Al Nasr in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Wasl FC 74% versus Al Nasr 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Wasl FC 71% | Al Nasr 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Wasl FC 1.92 xG and Al Nasr 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Wasl FC attack 1.203 / defence 0.844 | Al Nasr attack 0.998 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.631 / away 1.710. Data: 38 Al-Wasl FC games / 38 Al Nasr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 46% | Draw 28% | Al Nasr 26%. Fair-value odds: Al-Wasl FC 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Al Nasr 3.85. Al-Wasl FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Wasl FC are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Wasl FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.36 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Wasl FC 80% | Al Nasr 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Wasl FC vs Al Nasr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Zabeel Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Feb 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 46% | Draw 28% | Al Nasr 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 68% | xG Al-Wasl FC 1.92 / Al Nasr 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Wasl FC attack 1.203 / def 0.844 | Al Nasr attack 0.998 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.631 / away 1.710 • Poisson stance: Al-Wasl FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Al-Wasl FC xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Al Nasr xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Wasl FC vs Al Nasr kick off?
Al-Wasl FC vs Al Nasr kicked off at 16:00 on Tuesday 13 February 2024 at Zabeel Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Wasl FC vs Al Nasr?
Al-Wasl FC 1 - 0 Al Nasr.
Where is Al-Wasl FC vs Al Nasr being played?
The match is being played at Zabeel Stadium.
What competition is Al-Wasl FC vs Al Nasr part of?
Al-Wasl FC vs Al Nasr is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Wasl FC vs Al Nasr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Wasl FC a 46% chance of winning, Al Nasr a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Wasl FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Wasl FC vs Al Nasr?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Al-Wasl FC and Al Nasr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Wasl FC vs Al Nasr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Al Nasr?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Wasl FC 2W | Draws 0 | Al Nasr 2W.
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Al Nasr in?
Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Al Nasr (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Wasl FC's attack rating (1.20) and Al Nasr's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Nasr's attack versus Al-Wasl FC's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Wasl FC Win
46%
2.17
28%
3.61
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Al-Wasl FC xG
Total xG
3.36
1.44
Al Nasr xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
15%
6.81
Win to Nil
11%
9.18
4%
25.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.6 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Wasl FC vs Al Nasr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Al-Wasl FC and Al Nasr expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Al-Wasl FC and 1.44 for Al Nasr, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Wasl FC vs Al Nasr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Al-Wasl FC have picked up 2.03 PPG on a 22W 11D 5L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Nasr's form line: 11W 9D 18L from 38 games, 1.11 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-W. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Wasl FC are the form team by 0.92 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Nasr.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Wasl FC have posted 2.00 PPG from 19 outings (11W 5D 3L).
On the road, Al Nasr have gone 3W 6D 10L from 19 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Wasl FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Wasl FC are averaging 2.24 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Al Nasr are on 1.16 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Wasl FC have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
Al Nasr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Al Nasr in coming into this match?
Al-Wasl FC have gone 22W 11D 5L in their last 38 games (2.03 PPG), while Al Nasr have gone 11W 9D 18L in their last 38 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Wasl FC at home or Al Nasr away?
Al-Wasl FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Wasl FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Al Nasr away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Al-Wasl FC or Al Nasr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Al Nasr in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Wasl FC's record when hosting Al Nasr specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Wasl FC
1
Draws
2
Al Nasr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Al Nasr?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Wasl FC have won 7, Al Nasr have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Wasl FC and Al Nasr last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2026, when Al Nasr 1-1 Al-Wasl FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Wasl FC and Al Nasr?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Wasl FC 74%, Al Nasr 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Al-Wasl FC and 58% for Al Nasr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Nasr in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Wasl FC home games / Al Nasr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Wasl FC play Al Nasr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Al-Wasl FC's games and 53% of Al Nasr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Wasl FC vs Al Nasr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Al-Wasl FC's matches and 58% of Al Nasr's.
Do Al-Wasl FC and Al Nasr tend to score early?
Al-Wasl FC have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Al Nasr in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Wasl FC edge out Al Nasr 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Wasl FC beat Al Nasr 1-0 at Zabeel Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Wasl FC 1.92 xG and Al Nasr 1.44 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Wasl FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Al Nasr landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Wasl FC attack 1.20 / defence 0.84 against Al Nasr attack 1.00 / defence 0.98, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Wasl FC 46% | Draw 28% | Al Nasr 26%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Wasl FC 71%, Al Nasr 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Nasr's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Al Nasr (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.