Al Wahda FC 2-2 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Wahda FC at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Khorfakkan travel to Al Nahyan Stadium to take on Al Wahda FC. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 20 December 2022, 12:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Wahda FC have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Wahda FC have posted 6W 1D 3L at Al Nahyan Stadium — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khorfakkan stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Khorfakkan have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Al Wahda FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al Wahda FC, 0 for Khorfakkan and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2022, ended 1–0 with Al Wahda FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Al Wahda FC trading profile (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Khorfakkan trading profile (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wahda FC 58% versus Khorfakkan 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Wahda FC 64% | Khorfakkan 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 1.89 xG and Khorfakkan 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 1.257 / defence 0.906 | Khorfakkan attack 0.786 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.378. Al Wahda FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.257 — their λ of 1.89 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 36 Al Wahda FC games / 36 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 59% | Draw 22% | Khorfakkan 19%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Khorfakkan 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Al Wahda FC (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Wahda FC as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Wahda FC 50% | Khorfakkan 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 20 Dec 2022, 12:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 59% | Draw 22% | Khorfakkan 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 53% | xG Al Wahda FC 1.89 / Khorfakkan 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 1.257 / def 0.906 | Khorfakkan attack 0.786 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Khorfakkan xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 12:45 on Tuesday 20 December 2022 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan?
Al Wahda FC 2 - 2 Khorfakkan.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 59% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan?
Record (2 meetings): Al Wahda FC 1W | Draws 1 | Khorfakkan 0W.
What form are Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan in?
Al Wahda FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Khorfakkan (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Wahda FC's attack at 1.26x the league average against Khorfakkan's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Khorfakkan's attack versus Al Wahda FC's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
59%
1.71
22%
4.50
19%
5.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
2.87
0.98
Khorfakkan xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
5.19
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
15%
6.59
Win to Nil
22%
4.56
3%
34.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 10.5 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 0.98 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Al Wahda FC have picked up 2.08 PPG on a 22W 9D 5L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khorfakkan's form line: 11W 6D 19L from 36 games, 1.08 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Wahda FC are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Khorfakkan.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Wahda FC have posted 2.00 PPG from 17 outings (10W 4D 3L).
On the road, Khorfakkan have gone 2W 3D 12L from 17 away games — 0.53 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Khorfakkan's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Wahda FC are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.36 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 22W 9D 5L in their last 36 games (2.08 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 11W 6D 19L in their last 36 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wahda FC at home or Khorfakkan away?
Al Wahda FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wahda FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 0.53 PPG.
Have Al Wahda FC or Khorfakkan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Khorfakkan in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Wahda FC's record when hosting Khorfakkan specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Wahda FC
4
Draws
1
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Wahda FC have won 5, Khorfakkan have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Khorfakkan 1-1 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wahda FC 53%, Khorfakkan 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Al Wahda FC and 76% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Khorfakkan in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wahda FC play Khorfakkan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al Wahda FC's games and 65% of Khorfakkan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Al Wahda FC's matches and 76% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Al Wahda FC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 11, as Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan drew 2-2 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 1.89 xG and Khorfakkan 0.98 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Khorfakkan outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.26 / defence 0.91 against Khorfakkan attack 0.79 / defence 1.01, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 59% | Draw 22% | Khorfakkan 19%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 64%, Khorfakkan 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.