Al Nasr 3-1 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Nasr at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Nasr face Khorfakkan.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Khorfakkan travel to Al Maktoum Stadium to take on Al Nasr in Pro League (matchday 10). The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 December 2024 at 12:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Nasr stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Al Nasr have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Al Nasr are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Khorfakkan — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Khorfakkan have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Nasr 1.60 PPG, Khorfakkan 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Al Nasr's last 10 home games and Khorfakkan's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Al Nasr, 2 for Khorfakkan and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 May 2024, ended Al Nasr 2–1 Khorfakkan — a Al Nasr win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al Nasr trading profile (last 35 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Khorfakkan trading profile (last 35 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Nasr 63% and Khorfakkan 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Nasr 66% | Khorfakkan 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Nasr 2.27 xG and Khorfakkan 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Nasr attack 1.069 / defence 0.946 | Khorfakkan attack 1.218 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.837 / away 1.532. Khorfakkan have an above-average attack rating of 1.218, which lifts their away xG to 1.76. Data: built from Al Nasr's last 35 games and Khorfakkan's last 35.
Result probabilities: Al Nasr 48% | Draw 23% | Khorfakkan 29%. Fair-value odds: Al Nasr 2.09 | Draw 4.29 | Khorfakkan 3.48. Al Nasr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS Yes probability 76% | Total xG 4.03. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.03 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% — both xG figures (2.27 / 1.76) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Nasr as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Nasr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.03 combined xG gives a 77% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Nasr's last 10 home games and Khorfakkan's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 76% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Nasr 70% (last 10 home games) | Khorfakkan 90% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, matchday 10 | Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 15 December 2024 at 12:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Nasr 48% | Draw 23% | Khorfakkan 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% (Under 23%) | BTTS Yes 76% (No 24%) | xG Al Nasr 2.27 / Khorfakkan 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Al Nasr attack 1.069 / def 0.946 | Khorfakkan attack 1.218 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.837 / away 1.532 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
Al Nasr xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Khorfakkan xG
76%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan FAQs
What time does Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 12:45 UK time on Sunday 15 December 2024 at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan?
Al Nasr 3 - 1 Khorfakkan.
Where is Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What competition is Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan part of?
Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan is a Pro League fixture (matchday 10) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Al Nasr a 48% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both Al Nasr and Khorfakkan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Nasr's attack rating (1.07) and Khorfakkan's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 2.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Khorfakkan's attack versus Al Nasr's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Nasr's last 35 games and Khorfakkan's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.0%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
48%
2.09
23%
4.29
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.1%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
Al Nasr xG
Total xG
4.03
1.76
Khorfakkan xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.32
24%
BTTS No
4.15
Clean Sheet
17%
5.83
10%
9.66
Win to Nil
8%
12.16
3%
33.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are Al Nasr and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Al Nasr and 1.76 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 4.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 35 outings, Al Nasr have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 16W 7D 12L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Khorfakkan's form line: 9W 8D 18L from 35 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-D.
Put side by side, Al Nasr are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Khorfakkan.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Nasr have posted 1.82 PPG from their last 17 home games (9W 4D 4L).
On the road, Khorfakkan have gone 4W 4D 9L from their last 17 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Nasr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Nasr are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.43 scored and 2.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Nasr have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Khorfakkan in 74%.
Last 35 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Nasr
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
Al Nasr (Home) vs Khorfakkan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Nasr
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
❓ Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan Form FAQs
What form are Al Nasr and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Al Nasr have gone 16W 7D 12L in their last 35 games (1.57 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 9W 8D 18L in their last 35 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Nasr at home or Khorfakkan away?
Al Nasr's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Nasr at home: 1.82 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 Feb 2022, when Khorfakkan won Khorfakkan 4-0 Al Nasr.
Al Nasr's record when hosting Khorfakkan specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al Nasr
4
Draws
2
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Khorfakkan?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Nasr have won 4, Khorfakkan have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Nasr and Khorfakkan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: Al Nasr 2-2 Khorfakkan.
Who has won more matches between Al Nasr and Khorfakkan?
Al Nasr have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Nasr at 59%, Khorfakkan at 82%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Al Nasr and 76% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Nasr home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Nasr and Khorfakkan matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Al Nasr's games and 82% of Khorfakkan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Nasr and Khorfakkan matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Al Nasr's matches and 76% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Al Nasr and Khorfakkan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Al Nasr's recent matches and 76% of Khorfakkan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Nasr cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Khorfakkan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Nasr beat Khorfakkan 3-1 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 2.27 xG and Khorfakkan 1.76 xG, a combined 4.03. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 1.07 / defence 0.95 against Khorfakkan attack 1.22 / defence 1.16, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 48% | Draw 23% | Khorfakkan 29%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 66%, Khorfakkan 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Nasr's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Nasr arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Nasr (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.