Al Bataeh 0-3 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Jazira (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Bataeh face Al-Jazira.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Bataeh host Al-Jazira at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 January 2025 at 12:55 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Bataeh — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Al Bataeh have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Jazira stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Jazira away from home this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Jazira — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Al Bataeh have won 1, Al-Jazira 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 3–2 with Al Bataeh winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al Bataeh in-play tendencies (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Al-Jazira in-play tendencies (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 64%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Bataeh 75% and Al-Jazira 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Bataeh 72% | Al-Jazira 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 1.69 xG and Al-Jazira 2.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 0.936 / defence 1.292 | Al-Jazira attack 1.076 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.854 / away 1.511. Data: 36 Al Bataeh games / 36 Al-Jazira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 30% | Draw 24% | Al-Jazira 46%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Jazira 2.17. Al-Jazira hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.78. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.78 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 2.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Jazira are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Jazira offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: Al Bataeh 90% | Al-Jazira 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Bataeh vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Jan 2025, 12:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Bataeh 30% | Draw 24% | Al-Jazira 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 73% | xG Al Bataeh 1.69 / Al-Jazira 2.10 • Poisson strength factors: Al Bataeh attack 0.936 / def 1.292 | Al-Jazira attack 1.076 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.854 / away 1.511 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Al Bataeh xG
Expected Goals
2.10
Al-Jazira xG
73%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Bataeh vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Al Bataeh vs Al-Jazira kicked off at 12:55 on Sunday 5 January 2025 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Bataeh vs Al-Jazira?
Al Bataeh 0 - 3 Al-Jazira.
Where is Al Bataeh vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What competition is Al Bataeh vs Al-Jazira part of?
Al Bataeh vs Al-Jazira is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Bataeh vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Al Bataeh a 30% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 46% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Bataeh vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Al Bataeh and Al-Jazira will score (BTTS).
Will Al Bataeh vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Al-Jazira?
Record (4 meetings): Al Bataeh 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Jazira 3W.
What form are Al Bataeh and Al-Jazira in?
Al Bataeh (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Al-Jazira (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Bataeh's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Al-Jazira's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Jazira's attack versus Al Bataeh's defence, projects 2.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
30%
3.38
24%
4.09
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Al Bataeh xG
Total xG
3.78
2.10
Al-Jazira xG
3.38
30%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.74
Clean Sheet
12%
8.16
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
4%
27.54
9%
11.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Bataeh vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Al Bataeh and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Al Bataeh and 2.10 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 3.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Bataeh vs Al-Jazira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Bataeh come into this having played 36 games, going 11W 9D 16L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Jazira sit at 1.44 PPG from 36 outings (14W 10D 12L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Bataeh on 1.17 PPG, Al-Jazira on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al Bataeh's home form reads 4W 5D 8L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Jazira have taken 1.06 points per game from 17 outings (4W 6D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Al Bataeh are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 2.03 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Bataeh have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Al-Jazira in 75%.
Last 36 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Bataeh
Blended
Al-Jazira
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Bataeh and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Al Bataeh have gone 11W 9D 16L in their last 36 games (1.17 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 14W 10D 12L in their last 36 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Bataeh at home or Al-Jazira away?
Al-Jazira's away record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Bataeh at home: 1.00 PPG; Al-Jazira away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Jan 2025, when Al-Jazira won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Bataeh's record when hosting Al-Jazira specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al Bataeh
1
Draws
6
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Al-Jazira?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Bataeh have won 1, Al-Jazira have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Bataeh and Al-Jazira last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2026, when Al Bataeh 1-1 Al-Jazira.
Who has won more matches between Al Bataeh and Al-Jazira?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Bataeh at 82%, Al-Jazira at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Al Bataeh and 65% for Al-Jazira. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 65% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Bataeh home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Bataeh play Al-Jazira?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Al Bataeh's games and 71% of Al-Jazira's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Bataeh vs Al-Jazira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Al Bataeh's matches and 65% of Al-Jazira's.
Do Al Bataeh and Al-Jazira tend to score early?
Al Bataeh have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Al-Jazira in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Jazira run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Al Bataeh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira beat Al Bataeh 0-3 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 1.69 xG and Al-Jazira 2.10 xG, a combined 3.78. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al Bataeh fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Al-Jazira outscored their 2.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 0.94 / defence 1.29 against Al-Jazira attack 1.08 / defence 0.97, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 30% | Draw 24% | Al-Jazira 46%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 72%, Al-Jazira 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Bataeh's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Jazira's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Bataeh 1.17 PPG, Al-Jazira 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Jazira win broke the near-deadlock. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.