Vorskla Poltava 0-3 Inhulets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Vorskla Poltava (61%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Vorskla Poltava face Inhulets.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets meet at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho in Premier League (matchday 15). This fixture gets under way on Friday 29 November 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Form
Vorskla Poltava (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Vorskla Poltava at home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Inhulets have collected 0.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Inhulets's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Vorskla Poltava. A 0.60 PPG lead over Inhulets (0.90 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record in our data favours Vorskla Poltava, who have won 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against Inhulets — Inhulets have 0 wins, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 7 Apr 2023, ended Vorskla Poltava 1–0 Inhulets — a Vorskla Poltava win.
The head-to-head data gives Vorskla Poltava an edge — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Vorskla Poltava — key trading statistics (last 14 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Inhulets — key trading statistics (last 14 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 36% versus Inhulets 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 36% | Inhulets 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.73 xG and Inhulets 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.900 / defence 1.017 | Inhulets attack 0.705 / defence 1.596. League average goals — home 1.204 / away 1.005. Inhulets's defence rating of 1.596 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Vorskla Poltava's projected output up. Inhulets's attack rating of 0.705 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.72. Data: built from Vorskla Poltava's last 44 games and Inhulets's last 14.
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 61% | Draw 25% | Inhulets 15%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 1.64 | Draw 4.08 | Inhulets 6.88. The model has a clear lean to Vorskla Poltava (61%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vorskla Poltava at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — mixed conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches — though recent form (Vorskla Poltava's last 10 home games and Inhulets's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Vorskla Poltava 30% (last 10 home games) | Inhulets 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets | Competition: Premier League, matchday 15 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho • Kick-off: Friday 29 November 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 61% | Draw 25% | Inhulets 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.73 / Inhulets 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.900 / def 1.017 | Inhulets attack 0.705 / def 1.596 | league avg home 1.204 / away 1.005 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Inhulets xG
43%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets FAQs
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Friday 29 November 2024 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets?
Vorskla Poltava 0 - 3 Inhulets.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets is a Premier League fixture (matchday 15) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 61% chance of winning, Inhulets a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Vorskla Poltava's attack rating (0.90) and Inhulets's defence rating (1.60), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Inhulets's attack (0.70x) against Vorskla Poltava's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from Vorskla Poltava's last 44 games and Inhulets's last 14 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.9%), 1-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
61%
1.64
25%
4.08
15%
6.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.45
0.72
Inhulets xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
6.88
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
30%
3.37
3%
38.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 10.7 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 0.72 for Inhulets, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 14 outings, Vorskla Poltava have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 4W 4D 6L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Inhulets's form line: 0W 6D 8L from 14 games, 0.43 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Vorskla Poltava are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Inhulets.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Vorskla Poltava have posted 1.40 PPG from their last 5 home games (2W 1D 2L).
On the road, Inhulets have gone 0W 1D 4L from their last 5 away games — 0.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vorskla Poltava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Inhulets are on 0.64 scored and 2.07 conceded.
Defensively: Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Inhulets
Blended
Vorskla Poltava (Home) vs Inhulets (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Inhulets
Blended
❓ Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets Form FAQs
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 4W 4D 6L in their last 14 games (1.14 PPG), while Inhulets have gone 0W 6D 8L in their last 14 (0.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Inhulets away?
Vorskla Poltava's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 1.40 PPG; Inhulets away: 0.20 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or Inhulets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Inhulets in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 23 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vorskla Poltava won Vorskla Poltava 3-0 Inhulets on 2 Oct 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vorskla Poltava have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Inhulets — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Vorskla Poltava
1
Draws
1
Inhulets
Recent Meetings
❓ Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Vorskla Poltava have won 3, Inhulets have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 May 2025: Inhulets 1-1 Vorskla Poltava.
Who has won more matches between Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets?
Vorskla Poltava have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Vorskla Poltava) and 40% (Inhulets) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Vorskla Poltava) and 60% (Inhulets).
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Vorskla Poltava have failed to score in 60% of games; Inhulets in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Inhulets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Vorskla Poltava vs Inhulets Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 40% of Inhulets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Vorskla Poltava's recent games and 60% of Inhulets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Inhulets matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 80% of Inhulets's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Inhulets run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Vorskla Poltava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inhulets beat Vorskla Poltava 0-3 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.73 xG and Inhulets 0.72 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Vorskla Poltava fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Inhulets outscored their 0.72 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 0.90 / defence 1.02 against Inhulets attack 0.70 / defence 1.60, drawn from 44/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 61% | Draw 25% | Inhulets 15%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Inhulets win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 36%, Inhulets 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (14 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Inhulets's trading profile (14 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Vorskla Poltava arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.43. Form was overturned, with Inhulets winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Inhulets (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.