LNZ Cherkasy 1-2 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates LNZ Cherkasy at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this LNZ Cherkasy vs Veres Rivne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Veres Rivne make the trip to Cherkasy Arena to face LNZ Cherkasy in Premier League, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 November 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
LNZ Cherkasy (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
LNZ Cherkasy at Cherkasy Arena this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — LNZ Cherkasy are significantly better at Cherkasy Arena than their overall form suggests.
Veres Rivne have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: D D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Veres Rivne have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for LNZ Cherkasy, 1.20 for Veres Rivne — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — LNZ Cherkasy lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 0.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with LNZ Cherkasy winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
LNZ Cherkasy — key trading statistics (44 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Veres Rivne — key trading statistics (44 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 48% versus Veres Rivne 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (LNZ Cherkasy 43% | Veres Rivne 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 1.06 xG and Veres Rivne 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.934 / defence 0.997 | Veres Rivne attack 0.859 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.030. Data: 44 LNZ Cherkasy games / 44 Veres Rivne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 38% | Draw 33% | Veres Rivne 29%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Veres Rivne 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, LNZ Cherkasy are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on LNZ Cherkasy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: LNZ Cherkasy 40% | Veres Rivne 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Nov 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 38% | Draw 33% | Veres Rivne 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG LNZ Cherkasy 1.06 / Veres Rivne 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.934 / def 0.997 | Veres Rivne attack 0.859 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.030 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Veres Rivne xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Veres Rivne kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Veres Rivne?
LNZ Cherkasy 1 - 2 Veres Rivne.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Veres Rivne part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Veres Rivne is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 38% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Veres Rivne will score (BTTS).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Veres Rivne?
Record (2 meetings): LNZ Cherkasy 1W | Draws 1 | Veres Rivne 0W.
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Veres Rivne in?
LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Veres Rivne (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about LNZ Cherkasy vs Veres Rivne?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
LNZ Cherkasy's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Veres Rivne's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. Flip it around — Veres Rivne's attack (0.86x) against LNZ Cherkasy's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
38%
2.62
33%
3.03
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
1.94
0.88
Veres Rivne xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
16%
6.33
10%
9.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 12.7 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 0.88 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
LNZ Cherkasy come into this having played 44 games, going 16W 11D 17L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Veres Rivne sit at 1.07 PPG from 44 outings (10W 17D 17L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for LNZ Cherkasy against 1.07 for Veres Rivne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
LNZ Cherkasy's home form reads 9W 4D 7L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Veres Rivne have taken 0.80 points per game from 20 outings (3W 7D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, LNZ Cherkasy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 1.11 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Veres Rivne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 16W 11D 17L in their last 44 games (1.34 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 10W 17D 17L in their last 44 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Veres Rivne away?
LNZ Cherkasy's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 1.55 PPG; Veres Rivne away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 9 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: LNZ Cherkasy won 0-3 on 9 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Veres Rivne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
LNZ Cherkasy
2
Draws
2
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Veres Rivne?
From 6 meetings on record, LNZ Cherkasy have won 2, Veres Rivne have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Veres Rivne last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2026, when Veres Rivne 0-3 LNZ Cherkasy.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — LNZ Cherkasy 45%, Veres Rivne 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (LNZ Cherkasy) and 30% (Veres Rivne).
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 30% of games; Veres Rivne in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when LNZ Cherkasy play Veres Rivne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 45% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is LNZ Cherkasy vs Veres Rivne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 30% of Veres Rivne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Veres Rivne tend to score early?
LNZ Cherkasy have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Veres Rivne in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Veres Rivne defy the odds to beat LNZ Cherkasy 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Veres Rivne beat LNZ Cherkasy 1-2 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 1.06 xG and Veres Rivne 0.88 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Veres Rivne outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.93 / defence 1.00 against Veres Rivne attack 0.86 / defence 0.95, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 38% | Draw 33% | Veres Rivne 29%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Veres Rivne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 43%, Veres Rivne 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (44 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Veres Rivne's trading profile (44 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — LNZ Cherkasy 1.34 PPG, Veres Rivne 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Veres Rivne win broke the near-deadlock. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.