Shakhtar Donetsk 3-0 Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Dnipro-1 at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Shakhtar Donetsk face Dnipro-1.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Shakhtar Donetsk host Dnipro-1 at Arena L'viv in Premier League (matchday 29). Kick-off is Sunday 28 May 2023 at 14:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Shakhtar Donetsk stand at 8W 2D 0L — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Shakhtar Donetsk's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Dnipro-1 — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Dnipro-1 have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Shakhtar Donetsk at 2.60 PPG versus Dnipro-1's 2.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Shakhtar Donetsk, 1 for Dnipro-1 and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Nov 2022, ended Shakhtar Donetsk 1–2 Dnipro-1 — a Dnipro-1 win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Shakhtar Donetsk in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.

Dnipro-1 in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shakhtar Donetsk 50% versus Dnipro-1 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shakhtar Donetsk 61% | Dnipro-1 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 1.09 xG and Dnipro-1 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.168 / defence 0.732 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.254 / defence 0.805. League average goals — home 1.162 / away 1.194. Dnipro-1 have an above-average attack rating of 1.254, which lifts their away xG to 1.09. Shakhtar Donetsk have a tight defence (rating 0.732), which is pulling Dnipro-1's projected output down. Data: built from Shakhtar Donetsk's last 46 games and Dnipro-1's last 46.

Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 35% | Draw 29% | Dnipro-1 35%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 2.83 | Draw 3.42 | Dnipro-1 2.82. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 35% to win, with the draw at 29%. There is no result lean here.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Shakhtar Donetsk 35% and Dnipro-1 35%, with the draw at 29%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.

The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Shakhtar Donetsk 40% (last 10 home games) | Dnipro-1 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights