Chornomorets 1-3 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chornomorets at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 29 as Chornomorets welcome Ruh Lviv to Stadion Chornomorets. Kick-off is set for Monday 29 May 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Chornomorets have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Chornomorets's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stadion Chornomorets this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ruh Lviv stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Ruh Lviv have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Chornomorets at 1.40 PPG versus Ruh Lviv's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Chornomorets have won 1, Ruh Lviv 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 5.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Chornomorets trading profile (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Ruh Lviv trading profile (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 58% versus Ruh Lviv 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 58% | Ruh Lviv 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.17 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.949 / defence 1.017 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.645 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.184. Data: 46 Chornomorets games / 45 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 45% | Draw 31% | Ruh Lviv 24%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Ruh Lviv 4.17. Chornomorets hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chornomorets at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chornomorets offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Chornomorets 30% | Ruh Lviv 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Monday 29 May 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 45% | Draw 31% | Ruh Lviv 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 37% | xG Chornomorets 1.17 / Ruh Lviv 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.949 / def 1.017 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.645 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Chornomorets (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Ruh Lviv xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 13:00 on Monday 29 May 2023 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv?
Chornomorets 1 - 3 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 45% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Chornomorets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv?
Record (2 meetings): Chornomorets 1W | Draws 1 | Ruh Lviv 0W.
What form are Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Chornomorets's attack rating (0.95) and Ruh Lviv's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ruh Lviv's attack versus Chornomorets's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chornomorets Win
45%
2.22
31%
3.28
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
1.95
0.78
Ruh Lviv xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
8%
13.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 11.1 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Chornomorets and 0.78 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chornomorets's recent record stands at 11W 13D 21L from 45 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Ruh Lviv, meanwhile, have gone 10W 16D 19L across 45 games — 1.02 PPG, with D-W-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chornomorets on 1.02 PPG, Ruh Lviv on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chornomorets have managed 4W 7D 12L from 23 games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ruh Lviv's away record stands at 3W 6D 14L across 23 trips, a 0.65 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Chornomorets are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 0.98 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Current Season
Ruh Lviv
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 11W 13D 21L in their last 45 games (1.02 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 10W 16D 19L in their last 45 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Chornomorets's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 0.83 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Chornomorets's record when hosting Ruh Lviv specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Chornomorets
2
Draws
4
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv?
From 7 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 1, Ruh Lviv have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Chornomorets 1-2 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 48%, Ruh Lviv 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Chornomorets) and 35% (Ruh Lviv).
On the defensive side: Chornomorets have failed to score in 44% of games; Ruh Lviv in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 39% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Chornomorets's recent games and 35% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ruh Lviv cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Chornomorets.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv beat Chornomorets 1-3 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 1.17 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.78 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Ruh Lviv outscored their 0.78 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.95 / defence 1.02 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.65 / defence 1.05, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 45% | Draw 31% | Ruh Lviv 24%, with Chornomorets to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Ruh Lviv win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 58%, Ruh Lviv 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chornomorets 1.02 PPG, Ruh Lviv 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ruh Lviv win broke the near-deadlock. Chornomorets (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.74 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.