Ruh Lviv 0-1 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 21 as Ruh Lviv welcome Vorskla Poltava to Arena Lviv. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 March 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Ruh Lviv have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruh Lviv's home record at Arena Lviv: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vorskla Poltava stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ruh Lviv at 1.20 PPG versus Vorskla Poltava's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Ruh Lviv have won 2, Vorskla Poltava 1, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 7 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Ruh Lviv in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Vorskla Poltava in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 52% versus Vorskla Poltava 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ruh Lviv 34% | Vorskla Poltava 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.10 xG and Vorskla Poltava 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.841 / defence 1.068 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.938 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 0.898. Data: 50 Ruh Lviv games / 50 Vorskla Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 40% | Draw 31% | Vorskla Poltava 29%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Vorskla Poltava 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ruh Lviv as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ruh Lviv 40% | Vorskla Poltava 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Mar 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 40% | Draw 31% | Vorskla Poltava 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.10 / Vorskla Poltava 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.841 / def 1.068 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.938 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.258 / away 0.898 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Vorskla Poltava xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 15 March 2025 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Ruh Lviv 0 - 1 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 40% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava?
Record (7 meetings): Ruh Lviv 2W | Draws 4 | Vorskla Poltava 1W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ruh Lviv's attack at 0.84x the league average against Vorskla Poltava's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vorskla Poltava's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
40%
2.50
31%
3.27
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.00
0.90
Vorskla Poltava xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
10%
10.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 12.2 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 0.90 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ruh Lviv come into this having played 50 games, going 18W 21D 11L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vorskla Poltava sit at 1.02 PPG from 50 outings (13W 12D 25L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ruh Lviv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Vorskla Poltava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ruh Lviv's home form reads 8W 11D 5L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Vorskla Poltava have taken 1.00 points per game from 24 outings (6W 6D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ruh Lviv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ruh Lviv are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 0.92 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Defensively: Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 18W 21D 11L in their last 50 games (1.50 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 13W 12D 25L in their last 50 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Ruh Lviv's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.46 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Ruh Lviv or Vorskla Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Vorskla Poltava in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2023, when Ruh Lviv won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ruh Lviv's record when hosting Vorskla Poltava specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Ruh Lviv
4
Draws
2
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava?
From 8 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 2, Vorskla Poltava have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Ruh Lviv 0-1 Vorskla Poltava.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Vorskla Poltava see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 54%, Vorskla Poltava 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Ruh Lviv and 33% for Vorskla Poltava.
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Vorskla Poltava in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Vorskla Poltava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 42% of Vorskla Poltava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 33% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Vorskla Poltava in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vorskla Poltava defy the odds to beat Ruh Lviv 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava beat Ruh Lviv 0-1 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.10 xG and Vorskla Poltava 0.90 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ruh Lviv fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.84 / defence 1.07 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.94 / defence 1.04, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 40% | Draw 31% | Vorskla Poltava 29%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Vorskla Poltava win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 34%, Vorskla Poltava 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ruh Lviv arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Vorskla Poltava winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.