Ruh Lviv 2-1 SK Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ruh Lviv vs SK Poltava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ruh Lviv host SK Poltava at Ukraina Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 1 August 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ruh Lviv stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Ruh Lviv haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ruh Lviv have posted 2W 4D 4L at Ukraina Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.26 xG and SK Poltava 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.911 / defence 0.944 | SK Poltava attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 1.029. Data: 30 Ruh Lviv games / 0 SK Poltava games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 45% | Draw 32% | SK Poltava 23%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 2.22 | Draw 3.12 | SK Poltava 4.35. Ruh Lviv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ruh Lviv as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs SK Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Ukraina Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 1 Aug 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 45% | Draw 32% | SK Poltava 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.26 / SK Poltava 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.911 / def 0.944 | SK Poltava attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.203 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
0.82
SK Poltava xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs SK Poltava kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs SK Poltava kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 1 August 2025 at Ukraina Stadium.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs SK Poltava?
Ruh Lviv 2 - 1 SK Poltava.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs SK Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Ukraina Stadium.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs SK Poltava part of?
Ruh Lviv vs SK Poltava is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs SK Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 45% chance of winning, SK Poltava a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs SK Poltava?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Ruh Lviv and SK Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs SK Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and SK Poltava?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ruh Lviv and SK Poltava in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ruh Lviv's attack at 0.91x the league average against SK Poltava's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SK Poltava's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
45%
2.23
32%
3.09
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.08
0.82
SK Poltava xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
6%
15.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 10.3 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.9 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs SK Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and SK Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 0.82 for SK Poltava, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs SK Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Pre-Season
SK Poltava
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ruh Lviv and SK Poltava runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Ruh Lviv
0
Draws
0
SK Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and SK Poltava?
From 2 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 2, SK Poltava have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and SK Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when SK Poltava 1-2 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and SK Poltava?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / SK Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Ruh Lviv edge out SK Poltava 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv beat SK Poltava 2-1 at Ukraina Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.26 xG and SK Poltava 0.82 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.91 / defence 0.94 against SK Poltava attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 45% | Draw 32% | SK Poltava 23%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.