Ruh Lviv 1-2 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 9 as Ruh Lviv welcome Kryvbas KR to Arena Lviv. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 October 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ruh Lviv stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruh Lviv's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Arena Lviv this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Kryvbas KR — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kryvbas KR away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Kryvbas KR are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Ruh Lviv, 1 for Kryvbas KR and 3 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ruh Lviv trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Kryvbas KR trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 37% versus Kryvbas KR 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ruh Lviv 29% | Kryvbas KR 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.16 xG and Kryvbas KR 2.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.798 / defence 1.361 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.183 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.172 / away 1.346. Ruh Lviv's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Kryvbas KR bring a strong defensive rating of 1.244 — this is suppressing Ruh Lviv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Ruh Lviv games / 38 Kryvbas KR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 20% | Draw 20% | Kryvbas KR 60%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 5.00 | Draw 5.00 | Kryvbas KR 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Kryvbas KR (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.16 / 2.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.7 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 65% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ruh Lviv 50% | Kryvbas KR 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Oct 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 20% | Draw 20% | Kryvbas KR 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 61% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.16 / Kryvbas KR 2.17 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.798 / def 1.361 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.183 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.172 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
2.17
Kryvbas KR xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 18 October 2025 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR?
Ruh Lviv 1 - 2 Kryvbas KR.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 20% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 60% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Kryvbas KR will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Kryvbas KR?
Record (6 meetings): Ruh Lviv 2W | Draws 3 | Kryvbas KR 1W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Kryvbas KR in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Kryvbas KR (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ruh Lviv's attack rating (0.80) and Kryvbas KR's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kryvbas KR's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 2.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
20%
5.10
20%
4.96
60%
1.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
0 – 2
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
3.33
2.17
Kryvbas KR xG
5.10
20%
Home win
4.96
20%
Draw
1.66
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
11%
8.73
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
2%
44.51
19%
5.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 7.8 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 2.17 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Ruh Lviv have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 11W 11D 16L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kryvbas KR's form line: 18W 9D 11L from 38 games, 1.66 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Kryvbas KR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Kryvbas KR are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ruh Lviv.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ruh Lviv have posted 0.95 PPG from 19 outings (4W 6D 9L).
On the road, Kryvbas KR have gone 8W 6D 5L from 19 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kryvbas KR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ruh Lviv are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 1.32 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Kryvbas KR in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Kryvbas KR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 11W 11D 16L in their last 38 games (1.16 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 18W 9D 11L in their last 38 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Kryvbas KR away?
Kryvbas KR's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 0.95 PPG; Kryvbas KR away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Ruh Lviv or Kryvbas KR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Kryvbas KR in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ruh Lviv and Kryvbas KR runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Kryvbas KR have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Apr 2026, when Kryvbas KR won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ruh Lviv's record when hosting Kryvbas KR specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Ruh Lviv
3
Draws
3
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Kryvbas KR?
From 8 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 2, Kryvbas KR have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Kryvbas KR 3-0 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Kryvbas KR?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Kryvbas KR see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 42%, Kryvbas KR 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Ruh Lviv and 32% for Kryvbas KR.
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR in 42%; Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 42% of games; Kryvbas KR in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Kryvbas KR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 42% of Kryvbas KR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 32% of Kryvbas KR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Kryvbas KR tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Kryvbas KR in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kryvbas KR edge out Ruh Lviv 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat Ruh Lviv 1-2 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.16 xG and Kryvbas KR 2.17 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.80 / defence 1.36 against Kryvbas KR attack 1.18 / defence 1.24, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 20% | Draw 20% | Kryvbas KR 60%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 29%, Kryvbas KR 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.