Obolon'-Brovar 0-0 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Obolon'-Brovar at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Obolon'-Brovar vs LNZ Cherkasy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Obolon'-Brovar host LNZ Cherkasy at Obolon Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 May 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Obolon'-Brovar — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Obolon Arena, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Obolon Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, LNZ Cherkasy stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Obolon'-Brovar at 1.40 PPG versus LNZ Cherkasy's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Obolon'-Brovar, 1 for LNZ Cherkasy and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 1–0 with Obolon'-Brovar winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Obolon'-Brovar in-play and half-time data (57 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
LNZ Cherkasy in-play and half-time data (57 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Obolon'-Brovar 28% versus LNZ Cherkasy 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Obolon'-Brovar 35% | LNZ Cherkasy 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Obolon'-Brovar 0.97 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.833 / defence 1.019 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.734 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.041. Data: 57 Obolon'-Brovar games / 57 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 38% | Draw 35% | LNZ Cherkasy 27%. Fair-value odds: Obolon'-Brovar 2.63 | Draw 2.86 | LNZ Cherkasy 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — LNZ Cherkasy's lower xG of 0.78 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Obolon'-Brovar as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Obolon'-Brovar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.75 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Obolon'-Brovar 30% | LNZ Cherkasy 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Obolon'-Brovar vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 38% | Draw 35% | LNZ Cherkasy 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 35% | xG Obolon'-Brovar 0.97 / LNZ Cherkasy 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.833 / def 1.019 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.734 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Obolon'-Brovar (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Expected Goals
0.78
LNZ Cherkasy xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Obolon'-Brovar vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Obolon'-Brovar vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Obolon'-Brovar vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Obolon'-Brovar 0 - 0 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is Obolon'-Brovar vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Obolon'-Brovar vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Obolon'-Brovar vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Obolon'-Brovar vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Obolon'-Brovar a 38% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 27% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Obolon'-Brovar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Obolon'-Brovar vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Obolon'-Brovar and LNZ Cherkasy will score (BTTS).
Will Obolon'-Brovar vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and LNZ Cherkasy?
Record (3 meetings): Obolon'-Brovar 2W | Draws 0 | LNZ Cherkasy 1W.
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and LNZ Cherkasy in?
Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Obolon'-Brovar's attack at 0.83x the league average against LNZ Cherkasy's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, LNZ Cherkasy's attack versus Obolon'-Brovar's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Obolon'-Brovar Win
38%
2.67
35%
2.82
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Total xG
1.75
0.78
LNZ Cherkasy xG
2.67
38%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.88
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
10%
9.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.4 | 13.6 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Obolon'-Brovar vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.1%.
How many goals are Obolon'-Brovar and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 0.78 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Obolon'-Brovar vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Obolon'-Brovar's recent record stands at 13W 18D 26L from 57 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Obolon'-Brovar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
LNZ Cherkasy, meanwhile, have gone 18W 15D 24L across 57 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Obolon'-Brovar on 1.00 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Obolon'-Brovar have managed 7W 10D 10L from 27 games — 1.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
LNZ Cherkasy's away record stands at 7W 9D 11L across 27 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Obolon'-Brovar are averaging 0.63 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 0.96 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Obolon'-Brovar have seen both teams score in 28% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Obolon'-Brovar have gone 13W 18D 26L in their last 57 games (1.00 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 18W 15D 24L in their last 57 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Obolon'-Brovar at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
Obolon'-Brovar's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Obolon'-Brovar at home: 1.15 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Obolon'-Brovar or LNZ Cherkasy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Obolon'-Brovar have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, LNZ Cherkasy in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
LNZ Cherkasy go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2023, when LNZ Cherkasy won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Obolon'-Brovar's record when hosting LNZ Cherkasy specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Obolon'-Brovar
1
Draws
4
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and LNZ Cherkasy?
From 7 meetings on record, Obolon'-Brovar have won 2, LNZ Cherkasy have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Obolon'-Brovar and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when LNZ Cherkasy 3-1 Obolon'-Brovar.
Who has won more matches between Obolon'-Brovar and LNZ Cherkasy?
LNZ Cherkasy have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Obolon'-Brovar 26%, LNZ Cherkasy 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Obolon'-Brovar and 33% for LNZ Cherkasy.
On the defensive side: Obolon'-Brovar keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Obolon'-Brovar have failed to score in 52% of games; LNZ Cherkasy in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Obolon'-Brovar home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Obolon'-Brovar play LNZ Cherkasy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 26% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent matches and 48% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Obolon'-Brovar vs LNZ Cherkasy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent games and 33% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Obolon'-Brovar and LNZ Cherkasy tend to score early?
Obolon'-Brovar have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, LNZ Cherkasy in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Obolon'-Brovar's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 28, as Obolon'-Brovar and LNZ Cherkasy drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 0.97 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.78 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Obolon'-Brovar fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.83 / defence 1.02 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.73 / defence 0.99, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 38% | Draw 35% | LNZ Cherkasy 27%, with Obolon'-Brovar to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Obolon'-Brovar 35%, LNZ Cherkasy 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Obolon'-Brovar 1.00 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.