LNZ Cherkasy 1-0 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 6 as LNZ Cherkasy welcome Ruh Lviv to Cherkasy Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 September 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. LNZ Cherkasy have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, LNZ Cherkasy have posted 2W 3D 5L at Cherkasy Arena — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Ruh Lviv — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Ruh Lviv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ruh Lviv's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (LNZ Cherkasy) versus 1.10 (Ruh Lviv). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for LNZ Cherkasy, 1 for Ruh Lviv and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2025, ended 1–0 with LNZ Cherkasy winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
LNZ Cherkasy trading profile (35 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Ruh Lviv trading profile (35 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 46% versus Ruh Lviv 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (LNZ Cherkasy 29% | Ruh Lviv 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 1.09 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.832 / defence 1.007 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.834 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.217. Data: 35 LNZ Cherkasy games / 35 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 37% | Draw 30% | Ruh Lviv 33%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Ruh Lviv 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on LNZ Cherkasy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: LNZ Cherkasy 40% | Ruh Lviv 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Sep 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 37% | Draw 30% | Ruh Lviv 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG LNZ Cherkasy 1.09 / Ruh Lviv 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.832 / def 1.007 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.834 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.185 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Ruh Lviv xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 21 September 2025 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv?
LNZ Cherkasy 1 - 0 Ruh Lviv.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 37% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Ruh Lviv?
Record (4 meetings): LNZ Cherkasy 3W | Draws 0 | Ruh Lviv 1W.
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Ruh Lviv in?
LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
LNZ Cherkasy's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Ruh Lviv's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Ruh Lviv's attack versus LNZ Cherkasy's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
37%
2.71
30%
3.35
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.11
1.02
Ruh Lviv xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
11%
8.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 12.4 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 1.02 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
LNZ Cherkasy's recent record stands at 9W 11D 15L from 35 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ruh Lviv, meanwhile, have gone 10W 11D 14L across 35 games — 1.17 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: LNZ Cherkasy on 1.09 PPG, Ruh Lviv on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, LNZ Cherkasy have managed 5W 4D 7L from 16 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ruh Lviv's away record stands at 5W 5D 6L across 16 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 0.97 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Early Season
Ruh Lviv
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 9W 11D 15L in their last 35 games (1.09 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 10W 11D 14L in their last 35 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Ruh Lviv's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 1.19 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 1.25 PPG.
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: LNZ Cherkasy have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
LNZ Cherkasy's record when hosting Ruh Lviv specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
LNZ Cherkasy
0
Draws
1
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Ruh Lviv?
From 6 meetings on record, LNZ Cherkasy have won 5, Ruh Lviv have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Ruh Lviv 1-2 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between LNZ Cherkasy and Ruh Lviv?
LNZ Cherkasy have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
LNZ Cherkasy see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — LNZ Cherkasy 44%, Ruh Lviv 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for LNZ Cherkasy and 25% for Ruh Lviv.
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Ruh Lviv in 38%; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 38% of games; Ruh Lviv in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when LNZ Cherkasy play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 38% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is LNZ Cherkasy vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 25% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
LNZ Cherkasy have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as LNZ Cherkasy edge out Ruh Lviv 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
LNZ Cherkasy beat Ruh Lviv 1-0 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 1.09 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.02 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ruh Lviv landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.83 / defence 1.01 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.83 / defence 1.11, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 37% | Draw 30% | Ruh Lviv 33%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 29%, Ruh Lviv 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (35 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (35 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — LNZ Cherkasy 1.09 PPG, Ruh Lviv 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the LNZ Cherkasy win broke the near-deadlock. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.