LNZ Cherkasy 1-3 Polessya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Polessya at 39%, yet in-form LNZ Cherkasy provide a compelling counter-argument — this LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Polessya travel to Cherkasy Arena to take on LNZ Cherkasy in Premier League (matchday 18). The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 February 2026 at 11:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 9W 0D 1L — a 2.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.20 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.20 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
LNZ Cherkasy's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.70 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Polessya — last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.30. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Polessya have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
LNZ Cherkasy carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.70 vs 2.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. LNZ Cherkasy's 0% BTTS rate and Polessya's 30% (from LNZ Cherkasy's last 10 home games and Polessya's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, LNZ Cherkasy have won 2, Polessya 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 17 Aug 2025, ended LNZ Cherkasy 2–0 Polessya — a LNZ Cherkasy win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
LNZ Cherkasy trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Polessya trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 36% versus Polessya 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (LNZ Cherkasy 26% | Polessya 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 0.92 xG and Polessya 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.978 / defence 0.726 | Polessya attack 1.243 / defence 0.785. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.215. Polessya bring a tight defence (rating 0.785, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling LNZ Cherkasy's projected output down. Polessya have an above-average attack rating of 1.243, which lifts their away xG to 1.10. LNZ Cherkasy have a tight defence (rating 0.726), which is pulling Polessya's projected output down. Data: built from LNZ Cherkasy's last 47 games and Polessya's last 47.
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 30% | Draw 31% | Polessya 39%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Polessya 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Polessya as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form LNZ Cherkasy (2.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Polessya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (LNZ Cherkasy's last 10 home games and Polessya's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: LNZ Cherkasy 0% (last 10 home games) | Polessya 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya | Competition: Premier League, matchday 18 | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 30% | Draw 31% | Polessya 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG LNZ Cherkasy 0.92 / Polessya 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.978 / def 0.726 | Polessya attack 1.243 / def 0.785 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Polessya (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Polessya xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya FAQs
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya?
LNZ Cherkasy 1 - 3 Polessya.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya is a Premier League fixture (matchday 18) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 30% chance of winning, Polessya a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
LNZ Cherkasy's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Polessya's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, Polessya's attack versus LNZ Cherkasy's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from LNZ Cherkasy's last 47 games and Polessya's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
30%
3.33
31%
3.23
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.02
1.10
Polessya xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
10%
9.99
16%
6.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 14.6 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 1.10 for Polessya, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
LNZ Cherkasy's recent record stands at 19W 12D 16L from 47 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Polessya, meanwhile, have gone 22W 15D 10L across 47 games — 1.72 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: LNZ Cherkasy on 1.47 PPG, Polessya on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, LNZ Cherkasy have managed 10W 5D 8L from their last 23 home games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Polessya's away record stands at 13W 4D 6L across their last 23 away games, a 1.87 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Polessya are on 1.40 scored and 0.83 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Polessya in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Polessya
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy (Home) vs Polessya (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Polessya
Blended
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya Form FAQs
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 19W 12D 16L in their last 47 games (1.47 PPG), while Polessya have gone 22W 15D 10L in their last 47 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Polessya away?
Polessya's away record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 1.52 PPG; Polessya away: 1.87 PPG.
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Polessya been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Polessya in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
LNZ Cherkasy's record when hosting Polessya specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
LNZ Cherkasy
1
Draws
3
Polessya
Recent Meetings
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, LNZ Cherkasy have won 2, Polessya have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: LNZ Cherkasy 1-3 Polessya.
Who has won more matches between LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — LNZ Cherkasy 30%, Polessya 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 26% for LNZ Cherkasy and 39% for Polessya.
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Polessya in 48%; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Polessya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 44% of Polessya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 39% of Polessya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 70% of Polessya's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Polessya cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over LNZ Cherkasy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Polessya beat LNZ Cherkasy 1-3 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 0.92 xG and Polessya 1.10 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Polessya outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.98 / defence 0.73 against Polessya attack 1.24 / defence 0.79, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 30% | Draw 31% | Polessya 39%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 26%, Polessya 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Polessya's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — LNZ Cherkasy 1.47 PPG, Polessya 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Polessya win broke the near-deadlock. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Polessya (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.