Dynamo Kyiv 4-0 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dynamo Kyiv at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dynamo Kyiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho plays host to Dynamo Kyiv versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in Premier League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Friday 27 February 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dynamo Kyiv have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Kyiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dynamo Kyiv have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's away record: 4W 1D 4L from 9 road trips in Premier League this season (1.44 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Dynamo Kyiv, 1.10 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Dynamo Kyiv 1W, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 4–1 with Dynamo Kyiv winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Dynamo Kyiv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dynamo Kyiv 72% versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dynamo Kyiv 67% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo Kyiv 1.56 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.199 / defence 0.816 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.851 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.248. Data: 47 Dynamo Kyiv games / 17 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 53% | Draw 27% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 20%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo Kyiv 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 5.00. Dynamo Kyiv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dynamo Kyiv if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dynamo Kyiv 50% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 22% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo Kyiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho • Kick-off: Friday 27 Feb 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 53% | Draw 27% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Dynamo Kyiv 1.56 / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.199 / def 0.816 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.851 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.186 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dynamo Kyiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kick off?
Dynamo Kyiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kicked off at 11:00 on Friday 27 February 2026 at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho.
What was the final score in Dynamo Kyiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Dynamo Kyiv 4 - 0 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Where is Dynamo Kyiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho.
What competition is Dynamo Kyiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi part of?
Dynamo Kyiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo Kyiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo Kyiv a 53% chance of winning, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo Kyiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Dynamo Kyiv and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will score (BTTS).
Will Dynamo Kyiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Kyiv and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Record (1 meetings): Dynamo Kyiv 1W | Draws 0 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0W.
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in?
Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dynamo Kyiv's attack at 1.20x the league average against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack (0.85x) against Dynamo Kyiv's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 47/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
53%
1.88
27%
3.72
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Total xG
2.43
0.87
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
22%
4.48
4%
23.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 11.9 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo Kyiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Dynamo Kyiv and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Dynamo Kyiv and 0.87 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo Kyiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dynamo Kyiv come into this having played 18 games, going 8W 6D 4L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Dynamo Kyiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi sit at 0.83 PPG from 18 outings (4W 3D 11L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo Kyiv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.84 PPG clear of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Dynamo Kyiv's home form reads 4W 3D 2L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have taken 1.44 points per game from 9 outings (4W 1D 4L). That's actually stronger than their 0.83 PPG overall record — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi travel well.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dynamo Kyiv are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are on 1.17 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dynamo Kyiv have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in coming into this match?
Dynamo Kyiv have gone 8W 6D 4L in their last 18 games (1.67 PPG), while Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 4W 3D 11L in their last 18 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dynamo Kyiv at home or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away?
Dynamo Kyiv's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dynamo Kyiv at home: 1.67 PPG; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Dynamo Kyiv
0
Draws
0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Kyiv and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
From 2 meetings on record, Dynamo Kyiv have won 2, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo Kyiv and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Dynamo Kyiv 4-0 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Who has won more matches between Dynamo Kyiv and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dynamo Kyiv 56%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 22% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Dynamo Kyiv) and 44% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi).
On the defensive side: Dynamo Kyiv keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 44%; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo Kyiv home games / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dynamo Kyiv play Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent matches and 22% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dynamo Kyiv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent games and 44% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dynamo Kyiv and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi tend to score early?
Dynamo Kyiv have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dynamo Kyiv run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Kyiv beat Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 4-0 at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Kyiv 1.56 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.87 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Dynamo Kyiv beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.20 / defence 0.82 against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.85 / defence 1.10, drawn from 47/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo Kyiv 53% | Draw 27% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 20%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo Kyiv 67%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.