LNZ Cherkasy 1-1 Kolos Kovalivka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kolos Kovalivka at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this LNZ Cherkasy vs Kolos Kovalivka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kolos Kovalivka make the trip to Cherkasy Arena to face LNZ Cherkasy in Premier League, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 4 November 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
LNZ Cherkasy have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Cherkasy Arena, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 3W 1D 4L this season (8 games, 1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game.
Kolos Kovalivka (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Kolos Kovalivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kolos Kovalivka away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for LNZ Cherkasy against 1.20 for Kolos Kovalivka. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
LNZ Cherkasy — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Kolos Kovalivka — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (LNZ Cherkasy 36% | Kolos Kovalivka 21%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (LNZ Cherkasy 50% | Kolos Kovalivka 7%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 0.86 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.994 / defence 1.105 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.757 / defence 0.781. League average goals — home 1.110 / away 1.203. Kolos Kovalivka's defence strength of 0.781 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 12 LNZ Cherkasy games / 42 Kolos Kovalivka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 30% | Draw 33% | Kolos Kovalivka 37%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Kolos Kovalivka 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kolos Kovalivka as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kolos Kovalivka if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.87 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: LNZ Cherkasy 50% | Kolos Kovalivka 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Kolos Kovalivka | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 30% | Draw 33% | Kolos Kovalivka 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG LNZ Cherkasy 0.86 / Kolos Kovalivka 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.994 / def 1.105 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.757 / def 0.781 | league avg home 1.110 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Kolos Kovalivka (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Kolos Kovalivka xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Kolos Kovalivka kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Kolos Kovalivka kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Kolos Kovalivka?
LNZ Cherkasy 1 - 1 Kolos Kovalivka.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Kolos Kovalivka being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Kolos Kovalivka part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Kolos Kovalivka is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 30% chance of winning, Kolos Kovalivka a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Kolos Kovalivka the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Kolos Kovalivka will score (BTTS).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Kolos Kovalivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Kolos Kovalivka?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Kolos Kovalivka in?
LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Kolos Kovalivka (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
LNZ Cherkasy's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Kolos Kovalivka's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. Flip it around — Kolos Kovalivka's attack (0.76x) against LNZ Cherkasy's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 12/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kolos Kovalivka Win
30%
3.37
33%
3.05
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
1.87
1.01
Kolos Kovalivka xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
11%
9.22
16%
6.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 15.5 | 7.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Kolos Kovalivka expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 1.01 for Kolos Kovalivka, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
LNZ Cherkasy come into this having played 14 games, going 4W 4D 6L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-W. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kolos Kovalivka sit at 1.36 PPG from 14 outings (4W 7D 3L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Kolos Kovalivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for LNZ Cherkasy against 1.36 for Kolos Kovalivka. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
LNZ Cherkasy's home form reads 2W 1D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Kolos Kovalivka have taken 1.17 points per game from 6 outings (1W 4D 1L).
Attack vs Defence
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Kolos Kovalivka are on 0.64 scored and 0.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kolos Kovalivka in 21%.
Defensively: LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Kolos Kovalivka in 57% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Kolos Kovalivka in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 4W 4D 6L in their last 14 games (1.14 PPG), while Kolos Kovalivka have gone 4W 7D 3L in their last 14 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Kolos Kovalivka away?
LNZ Cherkasy's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 1.17 PPG; Kolos Kovalivka away: 1.17 PPG.
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Kolos Kovalivka been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Kolos Kovalivka in 57%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Kolos Kovalivka — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
LNZ Cherkasy
2
Draws
1
Kolos Kovalivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Kolos Kovalivka?
From 6 meetings on record, LNZ Cherkasy have won 3, Kolos Kovalivka have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Kolos Kovalivka last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Kolos Kovalivka 1-0 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between LNZ Cherkasy and Kolos Kovalivka?
LNZ Cherkasy have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Kolos Kovalivka see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — LNZ Cherkasy 50%, Kolos Kovalivka 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for LNZ Cherkasy and 0% for Kolos Kovalivka.
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Kolos Kovalivka in 50%; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 33% of games; Kolos Kovalivka in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Kolos Kovalivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when LNZ Cherkasy play Kolos Kovalivka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 33% of Kolos Kovalivka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is LNZ Cherkasy vs Kolos Kovalivka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 0% of Kolos Kovalivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Kolos Kovalivka tend to score early?
LNZ Cherkasy have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Kolos Kovalivka in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
LNZ Cherkasy and Kolos Kovalivka share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
LNZ Cherkasy and Kolos Kovalivka finished level at 1-1 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 0.86 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.01 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.99 / defence 1.10 against Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.76 / defence 0.78, drawn from 12/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 30% | Draw 33% | Kolos Kovalivka 37%, with Kolos Kovalivka to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 50%, Kolos Kovalivka 7%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 29%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 21% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — LNZ Cherkasy 1.14 PPG, Kolos Kovalivka 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.