Dnipro-1 1-0 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Oleksandria make the trip to Dnipro Arena to face Dnipro-1 in Premier League, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Monday 6 November 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Dnipro-1 (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dnipro-1 at Dnipro Arena this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Oleksandria have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 0W 4D 6L. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria away from home this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Dnipro-1. A 1.60 PPG lead over Oleksandria (2.00 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Dnipro-1, 0 for Oleksandria and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Dnipro-1 — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Oleksandria — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dnipro-1 48% versus Oleksandria 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dnipro-1 57% | Oleksandria 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dnipro-1 1.20 xG and Oleksandria 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dnipro-1 attack 1.117 / defence 0.866 | Oleksandria attack 0.730 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.118 / away 1.177. Data: 42 Dnipro-1 games / 42 Oleksandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dnipro-1 45% | Draw 33% | Oleksandria 22%. Fair-value odds: Dnipro-1 2.22 | Draw 3.03 | Oleksandria 4.55. Dnipro-1 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dnipro-1 at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates are neutral: Dnipro-1 60% | Oleksandria 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Dnipro Arena • Kick-off: Monday 6 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dnipro-1 45% | Draw 33% | Oleksandria 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Dnipro-1 1.20 / Oleksandria 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Dnipro-1 attack 1.117 / def 0.866 | Oleksandria attack 0.730 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.118 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Dnipro-1 xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Oleksandria xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria kick off?
Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 6 November 2023 at Dnipro Arena.
What was the final score in Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria?
Dnipro-1 1 - 0 Oleksandria.
Where is Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Dnipro Arena.
What competition is Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria part of?
Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives Dnipro-1 a 45% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 22% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Dnipro-1 and Oleksandria will score (BTTS).
Will Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Oleksandria?
Record (3 meetings): Dnipro-1 1W | Draws 2 | Oleksandria 0W.
What form are Dnipro-1 and Oleksandria in?
Dnipro-1 (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Oleksandria (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dnipro-1's attack rating (1.12) and Oleksandria's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Oleksandria's attack (0.73x) against Dnipro-1's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
45%
2.20
33%
3.03
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Dnipro-1 xG
Total xG
1.94
0.74
Oleksandria xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
22%
4.63
7%
15.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 10.7 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 12.8 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 7.7 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Dnipro-1 and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Dnipro-1 and 0.74 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 42 outings, Dnipro-1 have picked up 2.17 PPG on a 28W 7D 7L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Oleksandria's form line: 12W 18D 12L from 42 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Dnipro-1 are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Oleksandria.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dnipro-1 have posted 2.19 PPG from 21 outings (14W 4D 3L).
On the road, Oleksandria have gone 4W 11D 6L from 21 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dnipro-1 are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 1.17 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Oleksandria in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dnipro-1
Blended
Oleksandria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dnipro-1 and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
Dnipro-1 have gone 28W 7D 7L in their last 42 games (2.17 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 12W 18D 12L in their last 42 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dnipro-1 at home or Oleksandria away?
Dnipro-1's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dnipro-1 at home: 2.19 PPG; Oleksandria away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Dnipro-1 or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dnipro-1 have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Oleksandria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Dnipro-1
2
Draws
1
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Oleksandria?
From 5 meetings on record, Dnipro-1 have won 2, Oleksandria have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dnipro-1 and Oleksandria last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Oleksandria 1-0 Dnipro-1.
Who has won more matches between Dnipro-1 and Oleksandria?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dnipro-1 52%, Oleksandria 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Dnipro-1) and 43% (Oleksandria).
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Oleksandria in 43%; Oleksandria in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dnipro-1 home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dnipro-1 play Oleksandria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Dnipro-1's recent matches and 52% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dnipro-1 vs Oleksandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Dnipro-1's recent games and 43% of Oleksandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dnipro-1 and Oleksandria tend to score early?
Dnipro-1 have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Oleksandria in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dnipro-1 edge out Oleksandria 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dnipro-1 beat Oleksandria 1-0 at Dnipro Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dnipro-1 1.20 xG and Oleksandria 0.74 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dnipro-1 attack 1.12 / defence 0.87 against Oleksandria attack 0.73 / defence 0.96, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dnipro-1 45% | Draw 33% | Oleksandria 22%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dnipro-1 57%, Oleksandria 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dnipro-1's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Oleksandria's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.29. That form edge translated into the three points. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.