Livyi Bereh 0-2 Kolos Kovalivka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kolos Kovalivka at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Livyi Bereh vs Kolos Kovalivka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Kolos Kovalivka travel to Stadion Livyi Bereh to take on Livyi Bereh. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 April 2025, 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Livyi Bereh have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Livyi Bereh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Livyi Bereh at Stadion Livyi Bereh this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kolos Kovalivka stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Kolos Kovalivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kolos Kovalivka's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Livyi Bereh are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Livyi Bereh's 20% rate and Kolos Kovalivka's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Livyi Bereh, 0 for Kolos Kovalivka and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Livyi Bereh trading profile (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
Kolos Kovalivka trading profile (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Livyi Bereh 19% | Kolos Kovalivka 38%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Livyi Bereh 23% | Kolos Kovalivka 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Livyi Bereh 0.85 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Livyi Bereh attack 0.792 / defence 1.096 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 1.084 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 0.939. Livyi Bereh's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Livyi Bereh games / 53 Kolos Kovalivka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 28% | Draw 31% | Kolos Kovalivka 42%. Fair-value odds: Livyi Bereh 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | Kolos Kovalivka 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kolos Kovalivka as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Livyi Bereh (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kolos Kovalivka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Livyi Bereh 20% | Kolos Kovalivka 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Livyi Bereh vs Kolos Kovalivka | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Apr 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 28% | Draw 31% | Kolos Kovalivka 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Livyi Bereh 0.85 / Kolos Kovalivka 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Livyi Bereh attack 0.792 / def 1.096 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 1.084 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.141 / away 0.939 • Poisson stance: Kolos Kovalivka (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Livyi Bereh xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Kolos Kovalivka xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Livyi Bereh vs Kolos Kovalivka kick off?
Livyi Bereh vs Kolos Kovalivka kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in Livyi Bereh vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Livyi Bereh 0 - 2 Kolos Kovalivka.
Where is Livyi Bereh vs Kolos Kovalivka being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is Livyi Bereh vs Kolos Kovalivka part of?
Livyi Bereh vs Kolos Kovalivka is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Livyi Bereh vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our statistical model gives Livyi Bereh a 28% chance of winning, Kolos Kovalivka a 42% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Kolos Kovalivka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Livyi Bereh vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Livyi Bereh and Kolos Kovalivka will score (BTTS).
Will Livyi Bereh vs Kolos Kovalivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Kolos Kovalivka?
Record (1 meetings): Livyi Bereh 0W | Draws 1 | Kolos Kovalivka 0W.
What form are Livyi Bereh and Kolos Kovalivka in?
Livyi Bereh (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Kolos Kovalivka (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Livyi Bereh's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Kolos Kovalivka's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. The same calculation in reverse, Kolos Kovalivka's attack versus Livyi Bereh's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kolos Kovalivka Win
28%
3.61
31%
3.25
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Livyi Bereh xG
Total xG
1.97
1.11
Kolos Kovalivka xG
3.61
28%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
9%
11.00
18%
5.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 15.6 | 8.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Livyi Bereh vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Livyi Bereh and Kolos Kovalivka expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Livyi Bereh and 1.11 for Kolos Kovalivka, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Livyi Bereh vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Livyi Bereh come into this having played 26 games, going 7W 6D 13L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Livyi Bereh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kolos Kovalivka sit at 0.92 PPG from 26 outings (5W 9D 12L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Kolos Kovalivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Livyi Bereh on 1.04 PPG, Kolos Kovalivka on 0.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Livyi Bereh's home form reads 4W 3D 6L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Kolos Kovalivka have taken 1.15 points per game from 13 outings (4W 3D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Livyi Bereh are averaging 0.65 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Kolos Kovalivka are on 0.77 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Livyi Bereh have seen both teams score in 19% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Livyi Bereh
Blended
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Livyi Bereh and Kolos Kovalivka in coming into this match?
Livyi Bereh have gone 7W 6D 13L in their last 26 games (1.04 PPG), while Kolos Kovalivka have gone 5W 9D 12L in their last 26 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Livyi Bereh at home or Kolos Kovalivka away?
Livyi Bereh's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Livyi Bereh at home: 1.15 PPG; Kolos Kovalivka away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Livyi Bereh or Kolos Kovalivka been keeping clean sheets recently?
Livyi Bereh have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Kolos Kovalivka in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Livyi Bereh and Kolos Kovalivka runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Livyi Bereh
1
Draws
1
Kolos Kovalivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Kolos Kovalivka?
From 2 meetings on record, Livyi Bereh have won 0, Kolos Kovalivka have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Livyi Bereh and Kolos Kovalivka last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when Livyi Bereh 0-2 Kolos Kovalivka.
Who has won more matches between Livyi Bereh and Kolos Kovalivka?
Kolos Kovalivka have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Livyi Bereh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Kolos Kovalivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Livyi Bereh 23% BTTS, Kolos Kovalivka 38%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Livyi Bereh and 38% for Kolos Kovalivka.
On the defensive side: Livyi Bereh keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Kolos Kovalivka in 38%; Livyi Bereh have failed to score in 54% of games; Kolos Kovalivka in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Livyi Bereh home games / Kolos Kovalivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Livyi Bereh play Kolos Kovalivka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of Livyi Bereh's recent matches and 38% of Kolos Kovalivka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Livyi Bereh vs Kolos Kovalivka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Livyi Bereh's recent games and 38% of Kolos Kovalivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Livyi Bereh and Kolos Kovalivka tend to score early?
Livyi Bereh have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Kolos Kovalivka in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kolos Kovalivka cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Livyi Bereh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kolos Kovalivka beat Livyi Bereh 0-2 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Livyi Bereh 0.85 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.11 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Livyi Bereh fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Kolos Kovalivka outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Livyi Bereh attack 0.79 / defence 1.10 against Kolos Kovalivka attack 1.08 / defence 0.94, drawn from 22/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Livyi Bereh 28% | Draw 31% | Kolos Kovalivka 42%, with Kolos Kovalivka to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Livyi Bereh 23%, Kolos Kovalivka 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 29%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Livyi Bereh's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 19% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 62% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Livyi Bereh 1.04 PPG, Kolos Kovalivka 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kolos Kovalivka win broke the near-deadlock. Livyi Bereh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.