Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Kharkiv at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees FC Kharkiv travel to to take on Kudrivka. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 November 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kudrivka stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kudrivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kudrivka's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Kharkiv have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. FC Kharkiv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Kharkiv away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. FC Kharkiv's 2.00 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Kudrivka's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Kudrivka, 1 for FC Kharkiv and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with FC Kharkiv winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Kudrivka in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
FC Kharkiv in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kudrivka 57% versus FC Kharkiv 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kudrivka 51% | FC Kharkiv 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kudrivka 1.51 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kudrivka attack 1.211 / defence 1.250 | FC Kharkiv attack 1.215 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.092. FC Kharkiv have an above-average attack strength of 1.215 — the away xG of 1.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 39 Kudrivka games / 37 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kudrivka 33% | Draw 28% | FC Kharkiv 39%. Fair-value odds: Kudrivka 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | FC Kharkiv 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Kharkiv are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Kharkiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kudrivka 60% | FC Kharkiv 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kudrivka 33% | Draw 28% | FC Kharkiv 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 65% | xG Kudrivka 1.51 / FC Kharkiv 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Kudrivka attack 1.211 / def 1.250 | FC Kharkiv attack 1.215 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Kudrivka xG
Expected Goals
1.66
FC Kharkiv xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026.
What competition is Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Kudrivka a 33% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Kudrivka and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kudrivka and FC Kharkiv?
Record (2 meetings): Kudrivka 0W | Draws 1 | FC Kharkiv 1W.
What form are Kudrivka and FC Kharkiv in?
Kudrivka (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kudrivka's attack at 1.21x the league average against FC Kharkiv's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus Kudrivka's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
33%
3.04
28%
3.61
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Kudrivka xG
Total xG
3.17
1.66
FC Kharkiv xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
19%
5.25
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
6%
15.93
9%
11.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.5 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.0 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Kudrivka and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Kudrivka and 1.66 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Kudrivka have picked up 0.84 PPG on a 7W 10D 20L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Kudrivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Kharkiv's form line: 18W 12D 7L from 37 games, 1.78 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, FC Kharkiv are the form team by 0.94 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kudrivka.
Venue Form
On home soil, Kudrivka have posted 1.28 PPG from 18 outings (6W 5D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 0.84 PPG overall — Kudrivka are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Kharkiv have gone 8W 7D 3L from 18 away games — 1.72 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Kharkiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kudrivka are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 1.35 scored and 0.65 conceded.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kudrivka
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kudrivka and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Kudrivka have gone 7W 10D 20L in their last 37 games (0.84 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 18W 12D 7L in their last 37 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kudrivka at home or FC Kharkiv away?
FC Kharkiv's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kudrivka at home: 1.28 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Kudrivka or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kudrivka have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Kudrivka
1
Draws
1
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kudrivka and FC Kharkiv?
From 2 meetings on record, Kudrivka have won 0, FC Kharkiv have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kudrivka and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when FC Kharkiv 1-0 Kudrivka.
Who has won more matches between Kudrivka and FC Kharkiv?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kudrivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kudrivka 61%, FC Kharkiv 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Kudrivka) and 39% (FC Kharkiv).
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv in 39%; Kudrivka have failed to score in 28% of games; FC Kharkiv in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kudrivka home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kudrivka play FC Kharkiv?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Kudrivka's games and 50% of FC Kharkiv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Kudrivka's recent games and 39% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kudrivka and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Kudrivka have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.