Kolos Kovalivka 0-0 Livyi Bereh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kolos Kovalivka at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kolos Kovalivka vs Livyi Bereh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Livyi Bereh travel to Stadion Kolos to take on Kolos Kovalivka. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 October 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Kolos Kovalivka have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Kolos Kovalivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Kolos, Kolos Kovalivka have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Livyi Bereh — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Livyi Bereh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Livyi Bereh's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 3L across 4 road games this term (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kolos Kovalivka 1.00 PPG, Livyi Bereh 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Kolos Kovalivka's 30% rate and Livyi Bereh's 25% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
In-Play Profile
Kolos Kovalivka in-play tendencies (12 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Livyi Bereh in-play tendencies (12 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Kolos Kovalivka 42% | Livyi Bereh 25%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kolos Kovalivka 33% | Livyi Bereh 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kolos Kovalivka 0.98 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.738 / defence 0.852 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.843 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.202 / away 1.118. Kolos Kovalivka's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 Kolos Kovalivka games / 8 Livyi Bereh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 37% | Draw 36% | Livyi Bereh 27%. Fair-value odds: Kolos Kovalivka 2.70 | Draw 2.78 | Livyi Bereh 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kolos Kovalivka are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kolos Kovalivka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.79 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Kolos Kovalivka 30% | Livyi Bereh 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kolos Kovalivka vs Livyi Bereh | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Kolos • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 37% | Draw 36% | Livyi Bereh 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Kolos Kovalivka 0.98 / Livyi Bereh 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.738 / def 0.852 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.843 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.202 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Kolos Kovalivka (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Livyi Bereh xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kolos Kovalivka vs Livyi Bereh kick off?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Livyi Bereh kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Stadion Kolos.
What was the final score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Livyi Bereh?
Kolos Kovalivka 0 - 0 Livyi Bereh.
Where is Kolos Kovalivka vs Livyi Bereh being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Kolos.
What competition is Kolos Kovalivka vs Livyi Bereh part of?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Livyi Bereh is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kolos Kovalivka vs Livyi Bereh?
Our statistical model gives Kolos Kovalivka a 37% chance of winning, Livyi Bereh a 27% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Kolos Kovalivka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Livyi Bereh?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Kolos Kovalivka and Livyi Bereh will score (BTTS).
Will Kolos Kovalivka vs Livyi Bereh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and Livyi Bereh?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and Livyi Bereh in?
Kolos Kovalivka (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Livyi Bereh (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Kolos Kovalivka vs Livyi Bereh?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kolos Kovalivka's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Livyi Bereh's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Livyi Bereh's attack versus Kolos Kovalivka's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kolos Kovalivka Win
37%
2.70
36%
2.79
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Total xG
1.79
0.80
Livyi Bereh xG
2.70
37%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.77
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
17%
6.03
10%
9.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 13.4 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kolos Kovalivka vs Livyi Bereh?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.5%.
How many goals are Kolos Kovalivka and Livyi Bereh expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Kolos Kovalivka and 0.80 for Livyi Bereh, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Kolos Kovalivka vs Livyi Bereh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kolos Kovalivka's recent record stands at 2W 4D 6L from 12 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Kolos Kovalivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Livyi Bereh, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 7L across 12 games — 0.92 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Livyi Bereh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kolos Kovalivka on 0.83 PPG, Livyi Bereh on 0.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kolos Kovalivka have managed 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.83 PPG overall — Kolos Kovalivka are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Livyi Bereh's away record stands at 1W 0D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kolos Kovalivka come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kolos Kovalivka are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Livyi Bereh are on 0.75 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Livyi Bereh in 25%.
Last 12 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
Livyi Bereh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and Livyi Bereh in coming into this match?
Kolos Kovalivka have gone 2W 4D 6L in their last 12 games (0.83 PPG), while Livyi Bereh have gone 3W 2D 7L in their last 12 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kolos Kovalivka at home or Livyi Bereh away?
Kolos Kovalivka's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kolos Kovalivka at home: 1.25 PPG; Livyi Bereh away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Kolos Kovalivka or Livyi Bereh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Livyi Bereh in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Kolos Kovalivka
1
Draws
0
Livyi Bereh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and Livyi Bereh?
From 2 meetings on record, Kolos Kovalivka have won 1, Livyi Bereh have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kolos Kovalivka and Livyi Bereh last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when Livyi Bereh 0-2 Kolos Kovalivka.
Who has won more matches between Kolos Kovalivka and Livyi Bereh?
Kolos Kovalivka have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kolos Kovalivka tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Livyi Bereh tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Kolos Kovalivka 25% BTTS, Livyi Bereh 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Kolos Kovalivka and 25% for Livyi Bereh.
On the defensive side: Kolos Kovalivka keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Kolos Kovalivka have failed to score in 50% of games; Livyi Bereh in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kolos Kovalivka home games / Livyi Bereh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kolos Kovalivka play Livyi Bereh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent matches and 25% of Livyi Bereh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kolos Kovalivka vs Livyi Bereh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent games and 25% of Livyi Bereh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kolos Kovalivka and Livyi Bereh tend to score early?
Kolos Kovalivka have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Livyi Bereh in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kolos Kovalivka's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kolos Kovalivka and Livyi Bereh finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Kolos, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kolos Kovalivka 0.98 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.80 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kolos Kovalivka fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Livyi Bereh landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.74 / defence 0.85 against Livyi Bereh attack 0.84 / defence 1.11, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kolos Kovalivka 37% | Draw 36% | Livyi Bereh 27%, with Kolos Kovalivka to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kolos Kovalivka 33%, Livyi Bereh 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (12 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Livyi Bereh's trading profile (12 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 58% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kolos Kovalivka 0.83 PPG, Livyi Bereh 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Livyi Bereh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.