Kryvbas KR 1-1 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Kryvbas KR at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Ruh Lviv travel to Stadion Hirnyk to take on Kryvbas KR. The game is scheduled for Monday 4 November 2024, 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Kryvbas KR have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kryvbas KR's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Hirnyk this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Ruh Lviv — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Ruh Lviv have posted 2W 6D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Kryvbas KR) versus 1.40 (Ruh Lviv). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Kryvbas KR, 2 for Ruh Lviv and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Kryvbas KR trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Ruh Lviv trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 45% versus Ruh Lviv 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kryvbas KR 48% | Ruh Lviv 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.00 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.032 / defence 0.915 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.992 / defence 0.828. League average goals — home 1.174 / away 1.083. Data: 40 Kryvbas KR games / 40 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 34% | Draw 33% | Ruh Lviv 33%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | Ruh Lviv 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Kryvbas KR 40% | Ruh Lviv 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Hirnyk • Kick-off: Monday 4 Nov 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 34% | Draw 33% | Ruh Lviv 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Kryvbas KR 1.00 / Ruh Lviv 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 1.032 / def 0.915 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.992 / def 0.828 | league avg home 1.174 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Ruh Lviv xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 13:30 on Monday 4 November 2024 at Stadion Hirnyk.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv?
Kryvbas KR 1 - 1 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hirnyk.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 34% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv?
Record (4 meetings): Kryvbas KR 1W | Draws 1 | Ruh Lviv 2W.
What form are Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv in?
Kryvbas KR (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kryvbas KR's attack at 1.03x the league average against Ruh Lviv's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ruh Lviv's attack versus Kryvbas KR's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
34%
2.94
33%
3.02
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
1.98
0.98
Ruh Lviv xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
13%
7.86
12%
8.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 0.98 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kryvbas KR's recent record stands at 22W 8D 10L from 40 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Kryvbas KR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ruh Lviv, meanwhile, have gone 15W 18D 7L across 40 games — 1.58 PPG, with D-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kryvbas KR on 1.85 PPG, Ruh Lviv on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kryvbas KR have managed 11W 5D 4L from 20 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ruh Lviv's away record stands at 8W 8D 4L across 20 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 1.48 scored and 0.92 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Ruh Lviv in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 22W 8D 10L in their last 40 games (1.85 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 15W 18D 7L in their last 40 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kryvbas KR at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Kryvbas KR's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kryvbas KR at home: 1.90 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Kryvbas KR or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Kryvbas KR have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Apr 2026, when Kryvbas KR won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kryvbas KR's record when hosting Ruh Lviv specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Kryvbas KR
3
Draws
2
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv?
From 8 meetings on record, Kryvbas KR have won 3, Ruh Lviv have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Kryvbas KR 3-0 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kryvbas KR 45%, Ruh Lviv 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Kryvbas KR) and 45% (Ruh Lviv).
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Ruh Lviv in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kryvbas KR play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 55% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kryvbas KR vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Kryvbas KR's recent games and 45% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Kryvbas KR have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Hirnyk, Regular Season - 12, as Kryvbas KR and Ruh Lviv drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.00 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.98 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.03 / defence 0.92 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.99 / defence 0.83, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 34% | Draw 33% | Ruh Lviv 33%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 48%, Ruh Lviv 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kryvbas KR 1.85 PPG, Ruh Lviv 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.