Dynamo Kyiv 4-2 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Dynamo Kyiv (48%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Dynamo Kyiv face Oleksandria.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dynamo Kyiv host Oleksandria at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi in Premier League (matchday 9). Kick-off is Sunday 1 October 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Dynamo Kyiv — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Dynamo Kyiv have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Oleksandria stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Oleksandria's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
On current form, Dynamo Kyiv have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
Dynamo Kyiv hold a clear advantage across the 3 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Oleksandria and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 20 May 2023, ended Dynamo Kyiv 5–1 Oleksandria — a Dynamo Kyiv win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Dynamo Kyiv and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 3.7 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Dynamo Kyiv in-play tendencies (last 35 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Oleksandria in-play tendencies (last 35 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dynamo Kyiv 49% versus Oleksandria 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dynamo Kyiv 54% | Oleksandria 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo Kyiv 1.31 xG and Oleksandria 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.328 / defence 0.832 | Oleksandria attack 0.765 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.062 / away 1.198. Dynamo Kyiv carry an above-average attack rating of 1.328 — their 1.31 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Oleksandria's attack rating of 0.765 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.76. Data: built from Dynamo Kyiv's last 35 games and Oleksandria's last 38.
Result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 48% | Draw 31% | Oleksandria 21%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo Kyiv 2.06 | Draw 3.23 | Oleksandria 4.85. Dynamo Kyiv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo Kyiv are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo Kyiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 66% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Dynamo Kyiv's last 10 home games and Oleksandria's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dynamo Kyiv 30% (last 10 home games) | Oleksandria 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, matchday 9 | Venue: Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi • Kick-off: Sunday 1 October 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 48% | Draw 31% | Oleksandria 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Dynamo Kyiv 1.31 / Oleksandria 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.328 / def 0.832 | Oleksandria attack 0.765 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.062 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Oleksandria xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria FAQs
What time does Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria kick off?
Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi.
What was the final score in Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria?
Dynamo Kyiv 4 - 2 Oleksandria.
Where is Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi.
What competition is Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria part of?
Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria is a Premier League fixture (matchday 9) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo Kyiv a 48% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Dynamo Kyiv and Oleksandria will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Dynamo Kyiv's attack at 1.33x the league average against Oleksandria's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Oleksandria's attack versus Dynamo Kyiv's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dynamo Kyiv's last 35 games and Oleksandria's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
48%
2.06
31%
3.23
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Total xG
2.07
0.76
Oleksandria xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
23%
4.42
6%
17.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 12.6 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Dynamo Kyiv and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Dynamo Kyiv and 0.76 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dynamo Kyiv's recent record stands at 22W 6D 7L from 35 games, a 2.06 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Oleksandria, meanwhile, have gone 10W 16D 9L across 35 games — 1.31 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dynamo Kyiv by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Oleksandria heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Dynamo Kyiv have managed 9W 4D 4L from their last 17 home games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Oleksandria's away record stands at 3W 9D 5L across their last 17 away games, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dynamo Kyiv are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 1.20 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Oleksandria in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo Kyiv
Early Season
Oleksandria
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv (Home) vs Oleksandria (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dynamo Kyiv
Early Season
Oleksandria
Blended
❓ Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria Form FAQs
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
Dynamo Kyiv have gone 22W 6D 7L in their last 35 games (2.06 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 10W 16D 9L in their last 35 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dynamo Kyiv at home or Oleksandria away?
Dynamo Kyiv's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dynamo Kyiv at home: 1.82 PPG; Oleksandria away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Dynamo Kyiv or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 19 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Mar 2026, when Dynamo Kyiv won Oleksandria 0-5 Dynamo Kyiv.
Dynamo Kyiv's record when hosting Oleksandria specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
7
Dynamo Kyiv
2
Draws
0
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Kyiv and Oleksandria?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Dynamo Kyiv have won 7, Oleksandria have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo Kyiv and Oleksandria last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 March 2026: Oleksandria 0-5 Dynamo Kyiv.
Who has won more matches between Dynamo Kyiv and Oleksandria?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dynamo Kyiv 35%, Oleksandria 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Dynamo Kyiv) and 41% (Oleksandria).
On the defensive side: Dynamo Kyiv keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Oleksandria in 41%; Dynamo Kyiv have failed to score in 29% of games; Oleksandria in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo Kyiv home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dynamo Kyiv vs Oleksandria Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dynamo Kyiv and Oleksandria matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent matches and 53% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dynamo Kyiv and Oleksandria matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent games and 41% of Oleksandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dynamo Kyiv and Oleksandria matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent matches and 53% of Oleksandria's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dynamo Kyiv cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Oleksandria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Kyiv beat Oleksandria 4-2 at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Kyiv 1.31 xG and Oleksandria 0.76 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Dynamo Kyiv beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Oleksandria outscored their 0.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.33 / defence 0.83 against Oleksandria attack 0.77 / defence 0.93, drawn from 35/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo Kyiv 48% | Draw 31% | Oleksandria 21%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo Kyiv 54%, Oleksandria 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Oleksandria's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.31. Form held, and they took the win. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Oleksandria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.