Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Uthai Thani at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Uthai Thani travel to Thalay Luang Stadium to take on Sukhothai FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 March 2027, 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sukhothai FC — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sukhothai FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Thalay Luang Stadium, Sukhothai FC have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at Thalay Luang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Uthai Thani have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Uthai Thani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Uthai Thani's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sukhothai FC at 0.70 PPG versus Uthai Thani's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Uthai Thani, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Sukhothai FC.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Uthai Thani have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Sukhothai FC in-play tendencies (31 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Uthai Thani in-play tendencies (31 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 48% versus Uthai Thani 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 39% | Uthai Thani 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.33 xG and Uthai Thani 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.964 / defence 1.181 | Uthai Thani attack 1.252 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.091. Uthai Thani have an above-average attack strength of 1.252 — the away xG of 1.61 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 31 Sukhothai FC games / 31 Uthai Thani games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 31% | Draw 25% | Uthai Thani 44%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Uthai Thani 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Uthai Thani as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Uthai Thani offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sukhothai FC 60% | Uthai Thani 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Thalay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Mar 2027, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 31% | Draw 25% | Uthai Thani 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.33 / Uthai Thani 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.964 / def 1.181 | Uthai Thani attack 1.252 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Uthai Thani xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Sunday 7 March 2027 at Thalay Luang Stadium.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at Thalay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 31% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani?
Record (6 meetings): Sukhothai FC 0W | Draws 3 | Uthai Thani 3W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Uthai Thani (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sukhothai FC's attack rating (0.96) and Uthai Thani's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Uthai Thani's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
31%
3.23
25%
3.93
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.94
1.61
Uthai Thani xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
20%
5.02
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
6%
16.19
12%
8.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.61 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sukhothai FC's recent record stands at 6W 10D 15L from 31 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Uthai Thani, meanwhile, have gone 8W 10D 13L across 31 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Uthai Thani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sukhothai FC on 0.90 PPG, Uthai Thani on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sukhothai FC have managed 6W 6D 4L from 16 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.90 PPG overall — Sukhothai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Uthai Thani's away record stands at 3W 5D 8L across 16 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sukhothai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sukhothai FC are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.39 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Uthai Thani in 61%.
Last 31 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
Uthai Thani
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 6W 10D 15L in their last 31 games (0.90 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 8W 10D 13L in their last 31 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Uthai Thani away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.50 PPG; Uthai Thani away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jan 2025, when Uthai Thani won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sukhothai FC's record when hosting Uthai Thani specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Sukhothai FC
3
Draws
3
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani?
From 6 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 0, Uthai Thani have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Sukhothai FC 1-1 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani?
Uthai Thani have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sukhothai FC see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sukhothai FC at 69%, Uthai Thani at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sukhothai FC) and 50% (Uthai Thani).
On the defensive side: Uthai Thani in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Uthai Thani?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Sukhothai FC's games and 62% of Uthai Thani's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sukhothai FC's recent games and 50% of Uthai Thani's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.