Sukhothai FC 1-3 Muangthong United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sukhothai FC host Muangthong United at Thung Talay Luang Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 February 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Sukhothai FC have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC's home record at Thung Talay Luang Stadium: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at Thung Talay Luang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Muangthong United — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Muangthong United have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sukhothai FC at 1.50 PPG versus Muangthong United's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Muangthong United have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against Sukhothai FC's 1 victories.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 2–4 with Muangthong United winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Muangthong United have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Sukhothai FC in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Muangthong United in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sukhothai FC 58% and Muangthong United 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 65% | Muangthong United 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.62 xG and Muangthong United 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 1.130 / defence 1.037 | Muangthong United attack 1.122 / defence 0.805. League average goals — home 1.782 / away 1.191. Data: 49 Sukhothai FC games / 48 Muangthong United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 42% | Draw 27% | Muangthong United 31%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Muangthong United 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sukhothai FC at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Sukhothai FC 50% | Muangthong United 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Thung Talay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Feb 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 42% | Draw 27% | Muangthong United 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.62 / Muangthong United 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 1.130 / def 1.037 | Muangthong United attack 1.122 / def 0.805 | league avg home 1.782 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Muangthong United xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 2 February 2025 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United?
Sukhothai FC 1 - 3 Muangthong United.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United being played?
The match is being played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 42% chance of winning, Muangthong United a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Muangthong United will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Muangthong United?
Record (5 meetings): Sukhothai FC 1W | Draws 0 | Muangthong United 4W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Muangthong United in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Muangthong United (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sukhothai FC's attack at 1.13x the league average against Muangthong United's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Muangthong United's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
42%
2.40
27%
3.72
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
3.01
1.39
Muangthong United xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
10%
9.60
6%
16.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.1 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Muangthong United expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.39 for Muangthong United, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sukhothai FC come into this having played 48 games, going 16W 9D 23L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-L. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Muangthong United sit at 1.69 PPG from 48 outings (24W 9D 15L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Muangthong United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Sukhothai FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sukhothai FC's home form reads 14W 1D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Sukhothai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Muangthong United have taken 1.13 points per game from 23 outings (7W 5D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.69 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Muangthong United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sukhothai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sukhothai FC are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Muangthong United are on 1.92 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Muangthong United in 65%.
Last 48 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Blended
Muangthong United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Muangthong United in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 16W 9D 23L in their last 48 games (1.19 PPG), while Muangthong United have gone 24W 9D 15L in their last 48 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Muangthong United away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.87 PPG; Muangthong United away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2024, when Muangthong United won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sukhothai FC's record when hosting Muangthong United specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sukhothai FC
0
Draws
6
Muangthong United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Muangthong United?
From 8 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 2, Muangthong United have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Muangthong United last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Sukhothai FC 3-0 Muangthong United.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Muangthong United?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sukhothai FC at 56%, Muangthong United at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Sukhothai FC and 65% for Muangthong United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Muangthong United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Muangthong United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Sukhothai FC's games and 74% of Muangthong United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Sukhothai FC's matches and 65% of Muangthong United's.
Do Sukhothai FC and Muangthong United tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Muangthong United in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Muangthong United cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sukhothai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Muangthong United beat Sukhothai FC 1-3 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.62 xG and Muangthong United 1.39 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Muangthong United outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 1.13 / defence 1.04 against Muangthong United attack 1.12 / defence 0.81, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 42% | Draw 27% | Muangthong United 31%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Muangthong United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 65%, Muangthong United 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Muangthong United's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Muangthong United arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Muangthong United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.