Rayong FC 1-1 Muangthong United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Muangthong United at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rayong FC vs Muangthong United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Muangthong United travel to WHA Rayong Stadium to take on Rayong FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 23 August 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rayong FC stand at 1W 0D 1L from 2 Thai League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Rayong FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Muangthong United — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Muangthong United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Muangthong United's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Muangthong United's 2.40 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Rayong FC's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayong FC 1.56 xG and Muangthong United 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayong FC attack 0.817 / defence 1.311 | Muangthong United attack 1.051 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.786 / away 1.281. Data: 2 Rayong FC games / 32 Muangthong United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Rayong FC 34% | Draw 23% | Muangthong United 43%. Fair-value odds: Rayong FC 2.94 | Draw 4.35 | Muangthong United 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Muangthong United as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Muangthong United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.32 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayong FC vs Muangthong United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: WHA Rayong Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 23 Aug 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayong FC 34% | Draw 23% | Muangthong United 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Rayong FC 1.56 / Muangthong United 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Rayong FC attack 0.817 / def 1.311 | Muangthong United attack 1.051 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.786 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Muangthong United (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Rayong FC xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Muangthong United xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayong FC vs Muangthong United kick off?
Rayong FC vs Muangthong United kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 23 August 2024 at WHA Rayong Stadium.
What was the final score in Rayong FC vs Muangthong United?
Rayong FC 1 - 1 Muangthong United.
Where is Rayong FC vs Muangthong United being played?
The match is being played at WHA Rayong Stadium.
What competition is Rayong FC vs Muangthong United part of?
Rayong FC vs Muangthong United is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Rayong FC vs Muangthong United?
Our statistical model gives Rayong FC a 34% chance of winning, Muangthong United a 43% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Muangthong United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayong FC vs Muangthong United?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Rayong FC and Muangthong United will score (BTTS).
Will Rayong FC vs Muangthong United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Muangthong United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rayong FC and Muangthong United in?
Rayong FC (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W. Muangthong United (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rayong FC's attack at 0.82x the league average against Muangthong United's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Muangthong United's attack versus Rayong FC's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
34%
2.92
23%
4.38
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Rayong FC xG
Total xG
3.32
1.76
Muangthong United xG
2.92
34%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
17%
5.84
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
6%
17.08
9%
11.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayong FC vs Muangthong United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Rayong FC and Muangthong United expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Rayong FC and 1.76 for Muangthong United, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayong FC vs Muangthong United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 2 outings, Rayong FC have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 1W 0D 1L record — L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Rayong FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Muangthong United's form line: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-W. It's still early in the season for Muangthong United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rayong FC on 1.50 PPG, Muangthong United on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Rayong FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Muangthong United are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Rayong FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Muangthong United in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayong FC
Early Season
Muangthong United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayong FC and Muangthong United in coming into this match?
Rayong FC have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Muangthong United have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Rayong FC or Muangthong United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rayong FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Muangthong United in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rayong FC and Muangthong United runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Rayong FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jan 2025, when Muangthong United won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rayong FC's record when hosting Muangthong United specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Rayong FC
1
Draws
1
Muangthong United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Muangthong United?
From 4 meetings on record, Rayong FC have won 2, Muangthong United have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rayong FC and Muangthong United last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Muangthong United 1-3 Rayong FC.
Who has won more matches between Rayong FC and Muangthong United?
Rayong FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayong FC home games / Muangthong United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayong FC play Muangthong United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Rayong FC's recent matches and 50% of Muangthong United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rayong FC vs Muangthong United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Rayong FC's recent games and 50% of Muangthong United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayong FC and Muangthong United tend to score early?
Rayong FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Muangthong United in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rayong FC and Muangthong United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayong FC and Muangthong United finished level at 1-1 at WHA Rayong Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 1.56 xG and Muangthong United 1.76 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.31 against Muangthong United attack 1.05 / defence 1.07, drawn from 2/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 34% | Draw 23% | Muangthong United 43%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 50%, Muangthong United 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rayong FC 1.50 PPG, Muangthong United 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.