Rayong FC 1-1 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Buriram United at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rayong FC vs Buriram United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Buriram United travel to WHA Rayong Stadium to take on Rayong FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 November 2024, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rayong FC stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rayong FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rayong FC at WHA Rayong Stadium this season: 2W 2D 2L from 6 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Rayong FC are significantly better at WHA Rayong Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Buriram United have recorded 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Buriram United have posted 7W 3D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Buriram United — 1.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.60 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Rayong FC trading profile (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Buriram United trading profile (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rayong FC 58% versus Buriram United 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayong FC 58% | Buriram United 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayong FC 0.88 xG and Buriram United 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayong FC attack 0.830 / defence 1.175 | Buriram United attack 1.428 / defence 0.595. League average goals — home 1.777 / away 1.155. Buriram United's defence strength of 0.595 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Buriram United have an above-average attack strength of 1.428 — the away xG of 1.94 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 12 Rayong FC games / 39 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayong FC 14% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 60%. Fair-value odds: Rayong FC 7.14 | Draw 3.85 | Buriram United 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (60%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Buriram United as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Rayong FC 67% | Buriram United 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayong FC vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: WHA Rayong Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayong FC 14% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 52% | xG Rayong FC 0.88 / Buriram United 1.94 • Poisson strength factors: Rayong FC attack 0.830 / def 1.175 | Buriram United attack 1.428 / def 0.595 | league avg home 1.777 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (60%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Rayong FC xG
Expected Goals
1.94
Buriram United xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayong FC vs Buriram United kick off?
Rayong FC vs Buriram United kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at WHA Rayong Stadium.
What was the final score in Rayong FC vs Buriram United?
Rayong FC 1 - 1 Buriram United.
Where is Rayong FC vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at WHA Rayong Stadium.
What competition is Rayong FC vs Buriram United part of?
Rayong FC vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Rayong FC vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Rayong FC a 14% chance of winning, Buriram United a 60% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayong FC vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Rayong FC and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Rayong FC vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Buriram United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rayong FC and Buriram United in?
Rayong FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Buriram United (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 3.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Rayong FC vs Buriram United?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rayong FC's attack rating (0.83) and Buriram United's defence rating (0.59), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Buriram United's attack versus Rayong FC's defence, projects 1.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 0-2 (11.2%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
14%
7.01
26%
3.91
60%
1.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.2%
Away win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Rayong FC xG
Total xG
2.81
1.94
Buriram United xG
7.01
14%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
1.66
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
14%
6.94
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
2%
48.67
25%
4.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 11.6 | 11.2 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayong FC vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Rayong FC and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Rayong FC and 1.94 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayong FC vs Buriram United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rayong FC come into this having played 12 games, going 3W 2D 7L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Rayong FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Buriram United sit at 2.50 PPG from 12 outings (9W 3D 0L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.58 PPG clear of Rayong FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Rayong FC's home form reads 2W 2D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.92 PPG overall — Rayong FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Buriram United have taken 2.60 points per game from 5 outings (4W 1D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rayong FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 3.17 scored and 0.50 conceded.
Defensively: Buriram United in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayong FC
Blended
Buriram United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayong FC and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Rayong FC have gone 3W 2D 7L in their last 12 games (0.92 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 9W 3D 0L in their last 12 (2.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayong FC at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayong FC at home: 1.60 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.60 PPG.
Have Rayong FC or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rayong FC have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Buriram United in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 29 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Apr 2026, when Rayong FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rayong FC's record when hosting Buriram United specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Rayong FC
1
Draws
2
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Buriram United?
From 4 meetings on record, Rayong FC have won 1, Buriram United have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rayong FC and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2026, when Rayong FC 3-0 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Rayong FC and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Rayong FC 60% BTTS, Buriram United 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Rayong FC) and 60% (Buriram United).
On the defensive side: Buriram United in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayong FC home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayong FC play Buriram United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Rayong FC's recent matches and 0% of Buriram United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rayong FC vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Rayong FC's recent games and 60% of Buriram United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayong FC and Buriram United tend to score early?
Rayong FC have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rayong FC and Buriram United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayong FC and Buriram United finished level at 1-1 at WHA Rayong Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 0.88 xG and Buriram United 1.94 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Buriram United landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 0.83 / defence 1.18 against Buriram United attack 1.43 / defence 0.59, drawn from 12/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 14% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 60%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 60%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 58%, Buriram United 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayong FC's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Buriram United's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.