Ratchaburi 2-2 Port FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Port FC (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ratchaburi face Port FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Port FC travel to Dragon Solar Park to take on Ratchaburi. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 May 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ratchaburi stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Ratchaburi at Dragon Solar Park this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Ratchaburi are significantly better at Dragon Solar Park than their overall form suggests.
Port FC — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Port FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 6D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Port FC — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ratchaburi, 3 for Port FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Dec 2023, ended 0–3 with Port FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Port FC in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 47% versus Port FC 72%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 33% | Port FC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 0.99 xG and Port FC 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 0.790 / defence 1.090 | Port FC attack 1.350 / defence 0.736. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.154. Ratchaburi's attack strength of 0.790 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Port FC's defence strength of 0.736 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Port FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.350 — the away xG of 1.70 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 Ratchaburi games / 58 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 21% | Draw 26% | Port FC 53%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 4.76 | Draw 3.85 | Port FC 1.89. Port FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 50% | Port FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 21% | Draw 26% | Port FC 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Ratchaburi 0.99 / Port FC 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 0.790 / def 1.090 | Port FC attack 1.350 / def 0.736 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Port FC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Port FC xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Port FC kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Port FC kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Port FC?
Ratchaburi 2 - 2 Port FC.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Port FC part of?
Ratchaburi vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 21% chance of winning, Port FC a 53% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Ratchaburi and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Port FC?
Record (5 meetings): Ratchaburi 1W | Draws 1 | Port FC 3W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Port FC in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Port FC (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ratchaburi's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Port FC's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
21%
4.78
26%
3.80
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.69
1.70
Port FC xG
4.78
21%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
18%
5.46
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
4%
26.08
20%
5.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.70 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ratchaburi's recent record stands at 20W 16D 22L from 58 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Port FC, meanwhile, have gone 29W 18D 11L across 58 games — 1.81 PPG, with D-L-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port FC by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ratchaburi heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ratchaburi have managed 12W 8D 8L from 28 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Port FC's away record stands at 10W 13D 5L across 28 trips, a 1.54 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 2.00 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC in 72%.
Last 58 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Current Season
Port FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Port FC in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 20W 16D 22L in their last 58 games (1.31 PPG), while Port FC have gone 29W 18D 11L in their last 58 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Port FC away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.57 PPG; Port FC away: 1.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ratchaburi and Port FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Dec 2023, when Port FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ratchaburi's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Ratchaburi
4
Draws
4
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Port FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 2, Port FC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Port FC 2-1 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ratchaburi at 57%, Port FC at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Ratchaburi) and 57% (Port FC).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Ratchaburi's games and 75% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ratchaburi vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 57% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Port FC tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Port FC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ratchaburi and Port FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 29, as Ratchaburi and Port FC drew 2-2 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 0.99 xG and Port FC 1.70 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Ratchaburi beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 0.79 / defence 1.09 against Port FC attack 1.35 / defence 0.74, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 21% | Draw 26% | Port FC 53%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 33%, Port FC 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Port FC's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Port FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.