Ratchaburi 1-2 Muangthong United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 44%, yet in-form Muangthong United provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ratchaburi and Muangthong United meet at Dragon Solar Park in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 May 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ratchaburi have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dragon Solar Park, Ratchaburi have gone 6W 0D 4L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Ratchaburi are significantly better at Dragon Solar Park than their overall form suggests.
Muangthong United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Muangthong United have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Muangthong United are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Ratchaburi 1W, Muangthong United 3W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (57 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Muangthong United — key trading statistics (57 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 46% versus Muangthong United 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 32% | Muangthong United 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.69 xG and Muangthong United 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 0.836 / defence 1.043 | Muangthong United attack 1.141 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.677 / away 1.184. Muangthong United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.202 — this is suppressing Ratchaburi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Ratchaburi games / 57 Muangthong United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 44% | Draw 24% | Muangthong United 32%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | Muangthong United 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Muangthong United (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 50% | Muangthong United 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 44% | Draw 24% | Muangthong United 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Ratchaburi 1.69 / Muangthong United 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 0.836 / def 1.043 | Muangthong United attack 1.141 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.677 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Muangthong United xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United?
Ratchaburi 1 - 2 Muangthong United.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United part of?
Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 44% chance of winning, Muangthong United a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Ratchaburi and Muangthong United will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Muangthong United?
Record (5 meetings): Ratchaburi 1W | Draws 1 | Muangthong United 3W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Muangthong United in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Muangthong United (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ratchaburi's attack at 0.84x the league average against Muangthong United's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Muangthong United's attack (1.14x) against Ratchaburi's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
44%
2.29
24%
4.08
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
3.09
1.41
Muangthong United xG
2.29
44%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
11%
9.35
6%
17.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.8 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Muangthong United expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.41 for Muangthong United, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 57 outings, Ratchaburi have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 20W 16D 21L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Muangthong United's form line: 27W 12D 18L from 57 games, 1.63 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Ratchaburi against 1.63 for Muangthong United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ratchaburi have posted 1.63 PPG from 27 outings (12W 8D 7L).
On the road, Muangthong United have gone 9W 6D 12L from 27 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.63 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Muangthong United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Muangthong United are on 1.91 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Muangthong United in 61%.
Last 57 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
Muangthong United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Muangthong United in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 20W 16D 21L in their last 57 games (1.33 PPG), while Muangthong United have gone 27W 12D 18L in their last 57 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Muangthong United away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.63 PPG; Muangthong United away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Muangthong United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Muangthong United in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Ratchaburi have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Muangthong United won 4-0 on 12 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ratchaburi have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Muangthong United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ratchaburi
1
Draws
5
Muangthong United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Muangthong United?
From 10 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 4, Muangthong United have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Muangthong United last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Ratchaburi 3-2 Muangthong United.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Muangthong United?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 56%, Muangthong United 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Ratchaburi) and 67% (Muangthong United).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Muangthong United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Muangthong United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Ratchaburi's games and 70% of Muangthong United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ratchaburi vs Muangthong United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 67% of Muangthong United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Muangthong United tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Muangthong United in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Muangthong United defy the odds to beat Ratchaburi 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Muangthong United beat Ratchaburi 1-2 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.69 xG and Muangthong United 1.41 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 0.84 / defence 1.04 against Muangthong United attack 1.14 / defence 1.20, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 44% | Draw 24% | Muangthong United 32%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Muangthong United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 32%, Muangthong United 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Muangthong United's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ratchaburi 1.33 PPG, Muangthong United 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Muangthong United win broke the near-deadlock. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.