Port FC 4-1 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Port FC (74%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Port FC face Sukhothai FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sukhothai FC make the trip to PAT Stadium to face Port FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Tuesday 27 August 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Port FC (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at PAT Stadium, Port FC have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium.
Sukhothai FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sukhothai FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Sukhothai FC have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Port FC. A 1.10 PPG lead over Sukhothai FC (2.10 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Port FC 3W, Sukhothai FC 1W, 0D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Port FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Port FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Sukhothai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Port FC 73% and Sukhothai FC 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Port FC 73% | Sukhothai FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 2.90 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.436 / defence 0.943 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.892 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.784 / away 1.306. Port FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.436 — their λ of 2.90 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 33 Port FC games / 33 Sukhothai FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Port FC 74% | Draw 16% | Sukhothai FC 11%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.35 | Draw 6.25 | Sukhothai FC 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (74%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 4.00. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.00 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.90 / 1.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 50% | Sukhothai FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Aug 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 74% | Draw 16% | Sukhothai FC 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 64% | xG Port FC 2.90 / Sukhothai FC 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.436 / def 0.943 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.892 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.784 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Port FC (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.90
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Sukhothai FC xG
64%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Port FC vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 13:00 on Tuesday 27 August 2024 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Port FC 4 - 1 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Port FC vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Port FC vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 74% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 11% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Port FC and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Sukhothai FC?
Record (4 meetings): Port FC 3W | Draws 0 | Sukhothai FC 1W.
What form are Port FC and Sukhothai FC in?
Port FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Port FC's attacking strength (1.44x league average) is weighed against Sukhothai FC's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.90. Flip it around — Sukhothai FC's attack (0.89x) against Port FC's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.5%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.2%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
74%
1.36
16%
6.33
11%
9.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
2 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.90
Port FC xG
Total xG
4.00
1.10
Sukhothai FC xG
1.36
74%
Home win
6.33
16%
Draw
9.35
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
5%
18.19
Win to Nil
24%
4.08
1%
170.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Port FC and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.90 expected goals for Port FC and 1.10 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 4.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Port FC come into this having played 33 games, going 19W 9D 5L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sukhothai FC sit at 1.09 PPG from 33 outings (10W 6D 17L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Port FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.91 PPG clear of Sukhothai FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Port FC's home form reads 12W 1D 3L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Sukhothai FC have taken 0.62 points per game from 16 outings (2W 4D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sukhothai FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Port FC are averaging 2.48 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 1.15 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Sukhothai FC in 61%.
Last 33 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Early Season
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 19W 9D 5L in their last 33 games (2.00 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 10W 6D 17L in their last 33 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Port FC's home record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.31 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won 5-0 on 10 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port FC have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sukhothai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Port FC
0
Draws
4
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Sukhothai FC?
From 9 meetings on record, Port FC have won 5, Sukhothai FC have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Sukhothai FC 2-1 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Sukhothai FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Port FC, 69% for Sukhothai FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Port FC and 75% for Sukhothai FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Sukhothai FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Sukhothai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Port FC's games and 69% of Sukhothai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port FC vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Port FC's matches and 75% of Sukhothai FC's.
Do Port FC and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Port FC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Sukhothai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Sukhothai FC 4-1 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 2.90 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.10 xG, a combined 4.00. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Port FC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.44 / defence 0.94 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.89 / defence 1.13, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 74% | Draw 16% | Sukhothai FC 11%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 74%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 73%, Sukhothai FC 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.94 average — above their attacking norm. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.