Port FC 3-1 Ayutthaya FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Port FC at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Port FC and Ayutthaya FC meet at PAT Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 August 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Port FC have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Port FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at PAT Stadium, Port FC have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.96 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.042 / defence 1.000 | Ayutthaya FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.633 / away 1.302. Data: 30 Port FC games / 0 Ayutthaya FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Port FC 55% | Draw 26% | Ayutthaya FC 19%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Ayutthaya FC 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Port FC are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Aug 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 55% | Draw 26% | Ayutthaya FC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Port FC 1.96 / Ayutthaya FC 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.042 / def 1.000 | Ayutthaya FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.633 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Port FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Ayutthaya FC xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC kick off?
Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 17 August 2025 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Port FC 3 - 1 Ayutthaya FC.
Where is Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC part of?
Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 55% chance of winning, Ayutthaya FC a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Port FC and Ayutthaya FC will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Ayutthaya FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Port FC and Ayutthaya FC in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Port FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Port FC's attack at 1.04x the league average against Ayutthaya FC's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ayutthaya FC's attack (0.85x) against Port FC's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
55%
1.81
26%
3.87
19%
5.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Port FC xG
Total xG
3.06
1.11
Ayutthaya FC xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
5.24
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
14%
7.08
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
3%
37.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.1 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Port FC and Ayutthaya FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Port FC and 1.11 for Ayutthaya FC, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Pre-Season
Ayutthaya FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Port FC
0
Draws
0
Ayutthaya FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Ayutthaya FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Port FC have won 2, Ayutthaya FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Ayutthaya FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Ayutthaya FC 1-4 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Ayutthaya FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Ayutthaya FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Port FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Ayutthaya FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Ayutthaya FC 3-1 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.96 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.11 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Port FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.00 against Ayutthaya FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 55% | Draw 26% | Ayutthaya FC 19%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.