Nong Bua Pitchaya 0-2 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nong Bua Pitchaya at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nong Bua Pitchaya host Chiangrai United at Pitchaya Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 November 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nong Bua Pitchaya — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nong Bua Pitchaya at Pitchaya Stadium this season: 4W 1D 2L from 7 home games — 1.86 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.57 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.86 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Nong Bua Pitchaya are significantly better at Pitchaya Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chiangrai United stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chiangrai United's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Nong Bua Pitchaya have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
Chiangrai United have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 4 encounters against Nong Bua Pitchaya's 0 victories.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2023, ended 1–2 with Chiangrai United winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Chiangrai United have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Nong Bua Pitchaya trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 69%.
Chiangrai United trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nong Bua Pitchaya 77% versus Chiangrai United 31%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nong Bua Pitchaya 85% | Chiangrai United 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nong Bua Pitchaya 2.81 xG and Chiangrai United 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.404 / defence 1.419 | Chiangrai United attack 0.642 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.783 / away 1.143. Nong Bua Pitchaya carry an above-average attack strength of 1.404 — their λ of 2.81 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 13 Nong Bua Pitchaya games / 41 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 72% | Draw 18% | Chiangrai United 10%. Fair-value odds: Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.39 | Draw 5.56 | Chiangrai United 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Nong Bua Pitchaya (72%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.85. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.85 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.81 / 1.04) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Chiangrai United lead the H2H ledger, but Nong Bua Pitchaya carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Nong Bua Pitchaya are the pick at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: Nong Bua Pitchaya 71% | Chiangrai United 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Pitchaya Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 72% | Draw 18% | Chiangrai United 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 62% | xG Nong Bua Pitchaya 2.81 / Chiangrai United 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.404 / def 1.419 | Chiangrai United attack 0.642 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.783 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Nong Bua Pitchaya (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.81
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Chiangrai United xG
62%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Pitchaya Stadium.
What was the final score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United?
Nong Bua Pitchaya 0 - 2 Chiangrai United.
Where is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Pitchaya Stadium.
What competition is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United part of?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Nong Bua Pitchaya a 72% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 10% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Nong Bua Pitchaya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chiangrai United?
Record (4 meetings): Nong Bua Pitchaya 0W | Draws 0 | Chiangrai United 4W.
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chiangrai United in?
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Chiangrai United (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nong Bua Pitchaya's attacking strength (1.40x league average) is weighed against Chiangrai United's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.81. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangrai United's attack versus Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.4%), 3-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nong Bua Pitchaya Win
72%
1.38
18%
5.62
10%
10.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.81
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Total xG
3.85
1.04
Chiangrai United xG
1.38
72%
Home win
5.62
18%
Draw
10.29
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
6%
16.58
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
1%
170.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 2.81 expected goals for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 1.04 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 3.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 13 outings, Nong Bua Pitchaya have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 4W 3D 6L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chiangrai United's form line: 2W 1D 10L from 13 games, 0.54 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Nong Bua Pitchaya are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chiangrai United.
Venue Form
On home soil, Nong Bua Pitchaya have posted 2.17 PPG from 6 outings (4W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Nong Bua Pitchaya are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Chiangrai United have gone 0W 0D 6L from 6 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.54 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chiangrai United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nong Bua Pitchaya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nong Bua Pitchaya are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 2.46 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 0.69 scored and 2.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nong Bua Pitchaya have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
Chiangrai United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 games (1.15 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 2W 1D 10L in their last 13 (0.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home or Chiangrai United away?
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home: 2.17 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Chiangrai United go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's record when hosting Chiangrai United specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Nong Bua Pitchaya
0
Draws
6
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chiangrai United?
From 6 meetings on record, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 0, Chiangrai United have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2025, when Chiangrai United 2-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Who has won more matches between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chiangrai United?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nong Bua Pitchaya 83%, Chiangrai United 17% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 83% (Nong Bua Pitchaya) and 33% (Chiangrai United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United in 83%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nong Bua Pitchaya home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nong Bua Pitchaya play Chiangrai United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 83% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent matches and 17% of Chiangrai United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's matches and 33% of Chiangrai United's.
Do Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chiangrai United cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Nong Bua Pitchaya.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangrai United beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 0-2 at Pitchaya Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nong Bua Pitchaya 2.81 xG and Chiangrai United 1.04 xG, a combined 3.85. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Nong Bua Pitchaya fell 2.8 short of their projected output. Chiangrai United outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.40 / defence 1.42 against Chiangrai United attack 0.64 / defence 1.12, drawn from 13/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nong Bua Pitchaya 72% | Draw 18% | Chiangrai United 10%, with Nong Bua Pitchaya to win its most likely call at 72%. Instead the game produced a Chiangrai United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 10% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nong Bua Pitchaya 85%, Chiangrai United 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Nong Bua Pitchaya arrived the stronger side — 1.15 PPG against 0.54. Form was overturned, with Chiangrai United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.