Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3-2 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nakhon Ratchasima FC host Uthai Thani at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 January 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 3W 2D 3L this season (8 games, 1.38 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Uthai Thani — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Uthai Thani's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 1.10 PPG versus Uthai Thani's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 0, Uthai Thani 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Nakhon Ratchasima FC trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Uthai Thani trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 59% versus Uthai Thani 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 53% | Uthai Thani 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.15 xG and Uthai Thani 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.732 / defence 1.477 | Uthai Thani attack 0.925 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.699 / away 1.124. Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack strength of 0.732 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 46 Uthai Thani games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 27% | Draw 28% | Uthai Thani 45%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Uthai Thani 2.22. Uthai Thani hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Uthai Thani as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Uthai Thani offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 75% | Uthai Thani 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jan 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 27% | Draw 28% | Uthai Thani 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.15 / Uthai Thani 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.732 / def 1.477 | Uthai Thani attack 0.925 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.699 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Uthai Thani xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 19 January 2025 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3 - 2 Uthai Thani.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 27% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Uthai Thani?
Record (1 meetings): Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0W | Draws 1 | Uthai Thani 0W.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Uthai Thani in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Uthai Thani (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack at 0.73x the league average against Uthai Thani's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Uthai Thani's attack versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
27%
3.67
28%
3.59
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
2.69
1.54
Uthai Thani xG
3.67
27%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
22%
4.65
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
6%
17.08
14%
7.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.4 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 1.54 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 17 outings, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 5W 6D 6L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Uthai Thani's form line: 5W 4D 8L from 17 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nakhon Ratchasima FC on 1.24 PPG, Uthai Thani on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have posted 1.38 PPG from 8 outings (3W 2D 3L).
On the road, Uthai Thani have gone 2W 2D 4L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.12 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
Uthai Thani
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 5W 6D 6L in their last 17 games (1.24 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 5W 4D 8L in their last 17 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or Uthai Thani away?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 1.38 PPG; Uthai Thani away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Nov 2025, when Uthai Thani won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's record when hosting Uthai Thani specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
2
Draws
1
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Uthai Thani?
From 4 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 1, Uthai Thani have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Uthai Thani last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-0 Uthai Thani.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 75%, Uthai Thani 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC) and 50% (Uthai Thani). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Uthai Thani in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play Uthai Thani?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's games and 50% of Uthai Thani's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's matches and 50% of Uthai Thani's.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nakhon Ratchasima FC defy the odds to beat Uthai Thani 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat Uthai Thani 3-2 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.15 xG and Uthai Thani 1.54 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.73 / defence 1.48 against Uthai Thani attack 0.93 / defence 0.93, drawn from 17/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 27% | Draw 28% | Uthai Thani 45%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Nakhon Ratchasima FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 53%, Uthai Thani 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Uthai Thani's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.24 PPG, Uthai Thani 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nakhon Ratchasima FC win broke the near-deadlock. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.