Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3-1 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Port FC meet at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 November 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 3W 0D 1L this season (4 games, 2.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Nakhon Ratchasima FC are significantly better at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Port FC (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 1L across 4 road games this term (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, 1.50 for Port FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Nakhon Ratchasima FC half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 30% of cases; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Port FC half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% versus Port FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 30% | Port FC 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.08 xG and Port FC 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.885 / defence 0.975 | Port FC attack 0.885 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.035 / away 1.319. Data: 10 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 10 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 34% | Draw 29% | Port FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Port FC 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 25% | Port FC 75%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 34% | Draw 29% | Port FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.08 / Port FC 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.885 / def 0.975 | Port FC attack 0.885 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.035 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Port FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Port FC xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Port FC kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Port FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Port FC?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3 - 1 Port FC.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Port FC part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 34% chance of winning, Port FC a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Port FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Port FC in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Port FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack at 0.89x the league average against Port FC's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Port FC's attack (0.89x) against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
34%
2.93
29%
3.46
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
2.22
1.14
Port FC xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
11%
9.15
12%
8.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 12.3 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 1.14 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 10 outings, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 4W 2D 4L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC's form line: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Nakhon Ratchasima FC against 1.50 for Port FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have posted 2.25 PPG from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Nakhon Ratchasima FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Port FC have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nakhon Ratchasima FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.50 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Port FC in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Port FC in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 games (1.40 PPG), while Port FC have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or Port FC away?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 2.25 PPG; Port FC away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Nakhon Ratchasima FC or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Port FC in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Port FC have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Port FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
1
Draws
6
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Port FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 1, Port FC have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Port FC 2-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 25%, Port FC 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC) and 50% (Port FC).
On the defensive side: Nakhon Ratchasima FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play Port FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent matches and 75% of Port FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent games and 50% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Port FC tend to score early?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Port FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Port FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat Port FC 3-1 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.08 xG and Port FC 1.14 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.89 / defence 0.97 against Port FC attack 0.89 / defence 1.18, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 34% | Draw 29% | Port FC 37%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Nakhon Ratchasima FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 30%, Port FC 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Port FC's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.40 PPG, Port FC 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nakhon Ratchasima FC win broke the near-deadlock. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Port FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.