Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-0 Muangthong United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Muangthong United at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 29 as Nakhon Ratchasima FC welcome Muangthong United to His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 May 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nakhon Ratchasima FC stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have posted 4W 3D 3L at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Nakhon Ratchasima FC are significantly better at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Muangthong United — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Muangthong United's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Muangthong United are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, 1 for Muangthong United and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 1–4 with Muangthong United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Nakhon Ratchasima FC in-play tendencies (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Muangthong United in-play tendencies (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 54% and Muangthong United 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% | Muangthong United 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.95 xG and Muangthong United 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.867 / defence 1.204 | Muangthong United attack 0.741 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.050 / away 1.200. Data: 28 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 28 Muangthong United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 30% | Draw 34% | Muangthong United 36%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3.33 | Draw 2.94 | Muangthong United 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Muangthong United as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Muangthong United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 40% | Muangthong United 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 May 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 30% | Draw 34% | Muangthong United 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.95 / Muangthong United 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.867 / def 1.204 | Muangthong United attack 0.741 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.050 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Muangthong United (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Muangthong United xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 1 May 2022 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2 - 0 Muangthong United.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United being played?
The match is being played at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 30% chance of winning, Muangthong United a 36% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Muangthong United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Muangthong United will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Muangthong United?
Record (1 meetings): Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0W | Draws 0 | Muangthong United 1W.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Muangthong United in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Muangthong United (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack rating (0.87) and Muangthong United's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Muangthong United's attack versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
30%
3.37
34%
2.90
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
2.02
1.07
Muangthong United xG
3.37
30%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
10%
9.82
14%
7.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 14.2 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Muangthong United expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 1.07 for Muangthong United, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nakhon Ratchasima FC come into this having played 28 games, going 9W 7D 12L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, Muangthong United sit at 1.64 PPG from 28 outings (12W 10D 6L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five.
Muangthong United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Nakhon Ratchasima FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home form reads 6W 3D 4L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Nakhon Ratchasima FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Muangthong United have taken 1.08 points per game from 13 outings (3W 5D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Muangthong United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nakhon Ratchasima FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Muangthong United are on 1.57 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Muangthong United in 68%.
Last 28 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Current Season
Muangthong United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Muangthong United in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 9W 7D 12L in their last 28 games (1.21 PPG), while Muangthong United have gone 12W 10D 6L in their last 28 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or Muangthong United away?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 1.62 PPG; Muangthong United away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Muangthong United runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Muangthong United won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's record when hosting Muangthong United specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
2
Draws
4
Muangthong United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Muangthong United?
From 8 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 2, Muangthong United have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Muangthong United last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Muangthong United 2-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Muangthong United?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 38%, Muangthong United 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 46% for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 23% for Muangthong United.
On the defensive side: Nakhon Ratchasima FC keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Muangthong United in 38%; Nakhon Ratchasima FC have failed to score in 31% of games; Muangthong United in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Muangthong United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play Muangthong United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent matches and 46% of Muangthong United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muangthong United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent games and 23% of Muangthong United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Muangthong United tend to score early?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Muangthong United in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Muangthong United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat Muangthong United 2-0 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.95 xG and Muangthong United 1.07 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Muangthong United landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.87 / defence 1.20 against Muangthong United attack 0.74 / defence 1.05, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 30% | Draw 34% | Muangthong United 36%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Nakhon Ratchasima FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%, Muangthong United 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Muangthong United's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Muangthong United arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Muangthong United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.