Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-0 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Chonburi FC travel to 80th Birthday Stadium to take on Nakhon Ratchasima FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 August 2025, 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Nakhon Ratchasima FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at 80th Birthday Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Nakhon Ratchasima FC are significantly better at 80th Birthday Stadium than their overall form suggests.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 2, Chonburi FC 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2023, ended 1–2 with Chonburi FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2.00 xG and Chonburi FC 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.970 / defence 1.108 | Chonburi FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.793 / away 1.366. Data: 30 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 0 Chonburi FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 53% | Draw 24% | Chonburi FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Chonburi FC 4.35. Nakhon Ratchasima FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nakhon Ratchasima FC are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nakhon Ratchasima FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: 80th Birthday Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Aug 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 53% | Draw 24% | Chonburi FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2.00 / Chonburi FC 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.970 / def 1.108 | Chonburi FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.793 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Ratchasima FC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Chonburi FC xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 16 August 2025 at 80th Birthday Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0 - 0 Chonburi FC.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at 80th Birthday Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 53% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Ratchasima FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chonburi FC?
Record (4 meetings): Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2W | Draws 1 | Chonburi FC 1W.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chonburi FC in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack rating (0.97) and Chonburi FC's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chonburi FC's attack versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Ratchasima FC Win
53%
1.90
24%
4.10
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
3.29
1.29
Chonburi FC xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
14%
7.39
Win to Nil
15%
6.89
3%
32.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 1.29 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Pre-Season
Chonburi FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's record when hosting Chonburi FC specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
2
Draws
2
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chonburi FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 2, Chonburi FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Chonburi FC 2-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Nakhon Ratchasima FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chonburi FC finished level at 0-0 at 80th Birthday Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2.00 xG and Chonburi FC 1.29 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nakhon Ratchasima FC fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Chonburi FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.11 against Chonburi FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 53% | Draw 24% | Chonburi FC 23%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.