Nakhon Pathom 1-3 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Buriram United (64%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Nakhon Pathom face Buriram United.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nakhon Pathom and Buriram United meet at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 January 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Nakhon Pathom's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Pathom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nakhon Pathom have posted 1W 2D 7L at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium this season.
Buriram United (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Buriram United's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Buriram United are 1.30 PPG clear of Nakhon Pathom in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (2.30 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Buriram United, who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 0–3 with Buriram United winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Buriram United have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Nakhon Pathom — key trading statistics (48 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Buriram United — key trading statistics (48 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Pathom 67% versus Buriram United 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Pathom 62% | Buriram United 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Pathom 0.95 xG and Buriram United 2.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.694 / defence 1.228 | Buriram United attack 1.497 / defence 0.782. League average goals — home 1.759 / away 1.163. Nakhon Pathom's attack strength of 0.694 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Buriram United's defence strength of 0.782 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Buriram United have an above-average attack strength of 1.497 — the away xG of 2.14 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Nakhon Pathom games / 48 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 15% | Draw 21% | Buriram United 64%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Pathom 6.67 | Draw 4.76 | Buriram United 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Buriram United at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Nakhon Pathom 60% | Buriram United 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Pathom vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jan 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 15% | Draw 21% | Buriram United 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 55% | xG Nakhon Pathom 0.95 / Buriram United 2.14 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.694 / def 1.228 | Buriram United attack 1.497 / def 0.782 | league avg home 1.759 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Nakhon Pathom xG
Expected Goals
2.14
Buriram United xG
55%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Pathom vs Buriram United kick off?
Nakhon Pathom vs Buriram United kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 26 January 2025 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Pathom vs Buriram United?
Nakhon Pathom 1 - 3 Buriram United.
Where is Nakhon Pathom vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Pathom vs Buriram United part of?
Nakhon Pathom vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Pathom vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Pathom a 15% chance of winning, Buriram United a 64% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Pathom vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Nakhon Pathom and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Pathom vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Buriram United?
Record (3 meetings): Nakhon Pathom 0W | Draws 0 | Buriram United 3W.
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Buriram United in?
Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Buriram United (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 3.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Nakhon Pathom's attack at 0.69x the league average against Buriram United's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Buriram United's attack (1.50x) against Nakhon Pathom's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 2.14.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.4%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
15%
6.68
21%
4.69
64%
1.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Nakhon Pathom xG
Total xG
3.09
2.14
Buriram United xG
6.68
15%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
1.57
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
12%
8.49
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
2%
56.68
25%
4.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 9.7 | 10.4 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Pathom vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Nakhon Pathom and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Nakhon Pathom and 2.14 for Buriram United, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Pathom vs Buriram United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Nakhon Pathom have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 11W 14D 23L record — L-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Nakhon Pathom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Buriram United's form line: 34W 12D 2L from 48 games, 2.38 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Buriram United are the form team by 1.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nakhon Pathom.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Nakhon Pathom have posted 1.09 PPG from 22 outings (6W 6D 10L).
On the road, Buriram United have gone 14W 6D 2L from 22 away games — 2.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nakhon Pathom are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.77 scored and 0.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Pathom have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Buriram United in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Pathom
Blended
Buriram United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Nakhon Pathom have gone 11W 14D 23L in their last 48 games (0.98 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 34W 12D 2L in their last 48 (2.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Pathom at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Pathom at home: 1.09 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.18 PPG.
Have Nakhon Pathom or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nakhon Pathom have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Buriram United in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Buriram United have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Buriram United won 4-1 on 9 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nakhon Pathom have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Buriram United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nakhon Pathom
0
Draws
4
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Buriram United?
From 4 meetings on record, Nakhon Pathom have won 0, Buriram United have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Pathom and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when Nakhon Pathom 1-3 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Pathom and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nakhon Pathom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Pathom 68%, Buriram United 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Nakhon Pathom) and 54% (Buriram United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Buriram United in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Pathom home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Pathom play Buriram United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Nakhon Pathom's games and 54% of Buriram United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nakhon Pathom vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Nakhon Pathom's matches and 54% of Buriram United's.
Do Nakhon Pathom and Buriram United tend to score early?
Nakhon Pathom have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Buriram United cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Nakhon Pathom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Nakhon Pathom 1-3 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Pathom 0.95 xG and Buriram United 2.14 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Buriram United outscored their 2.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Pathom attack 0.69 / defence 1.23 against Buriram United attack 1.50 / defence 0.78, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Pathom 15% | Draw 21% | Buriram United 64%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Pathom 62%, Buriram United 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (48 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Buriram United's trading profile (48 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Buriram United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.