Lamphun Warrior vs Pattani – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Pattani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
700th Anniversary Stadium plays host to Lamphun Warrior versus Pattani in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 25 October 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Lamphun Warrior (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Lamphun Warrior have gone 2W 6D 2L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pattani have collected 1.00 PPG across 1 Thai League 1 outings this season: 0W 1D 0L. Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Lamphun Warrior, 1.00 for Pattani — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.54 xG and Pattani 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.936 / defence 1.337 | Pattani attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.091. Data: 31 Lamphun Warrior games / 1 Pattani games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 44% | Draw 26% | Pattani 30%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Pattani 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 1.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Pattani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 44% | Draw 26% | Pattani 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.54 / Pattani 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.936 / def 1.337 | Pattani attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Pattani xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Pattani kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Pattani is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Pattani being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Pattani part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Pattani is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Pattani?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 44% chance of winning, Pattani a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Pattani?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Pattani will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Pattani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Pattani?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Pattani in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Pattani (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lamphun Warrior's attack at 0.94x the league average against Pattani's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pattani's attack (0.85x) against Lamphun Warrior's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
The sample (31/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
44%
2.29
26%
3.81
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.78
1.24
Pattani xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
6%
15.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.9 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Pattani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Pattani expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.24 for Pattani, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Pattani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lamphun Warrior's recent record stands at 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pattani, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 0L across 1 games — 1.00 PPG, with D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pattani by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lamphun Warrior heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 4.00 conceded per game recently; Pattani are on 0.00 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Pattani in 0%.
Defensively: Pattani in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
Pattani
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Pattani in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Pattani have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
Have Lamphun Warrior or Pattani been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamphun Warrior have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Pattani in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Pattani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Pattani?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Lamphun Warrior's recent matches and 0% of Pattani's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Pattani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 0% of Pattani's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Pattani tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Pattani in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.