Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Chonburi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Lamphun Warrior and Chonburi FC meet at 700th Anniversary Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Friday 27 November 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Lamphun Warrior have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Lamphun Warrior's home record at 700th Anniversary Stadium: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Chonburi FC (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Chonburi FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Across the last 6 meetings, Chonburi FC have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Lamphun Warrior's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2026, ended 0–1 with Chonburi FC winning.

It is worth noting that Chonburi FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading

Lamphun Warrior half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Chonburi FC half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lamphun Warrior 68% and Chonburi FC 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 48% | Chonburi FC 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.36 xG and Chonburi FC 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.935 / defence 1.342 | Chonburi FC attack 0.891 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.091. Data: 31 Lamphun Warrior games / 31 Chonburi FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 38% | Draw 27% | Chonburi FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Chonburi FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Lamphun Warrior at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 70% | Chonburi FC 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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