Chonburi FC 1-2 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Prachuap at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chonburi FC vs Prachuap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chonburi FC host Prachuap at OBD Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chonburi FC have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chonburi FC have posted 5W 2D 3L at OBD Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Chonburi FC are significantly better at OBD Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Prachuap — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Prachuap have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Prachuap's 1.90 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Chonburi FC's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Chonburi FC, 3 for Prachuap and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 0–2 with Prachuap winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Chonburi FC in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Prachuap in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 56% versus Prachuap 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 47% | Prachuap 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.19 xG and Prachuap 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.906 / defence 1.045 | Prachuap attack 1.024 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.287. Data: 34 Chonburi FC games / 34 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 32% | Draw 27% | Prachuap 41%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Prachuap 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Prachuap at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Prachuap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Chonburi FC 50% | Prachuap 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: OBD Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 32% | Draw 27% | Prachuap 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Chonburi FC 1.19 / Prachuap 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 0.906 / def 1.045 | Prachuap attack 1.024 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Prachuap xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Prachuap kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Prachuap kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at OBD Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Prachuap?
Chonburi FC 1 - 2 Prachuap.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at OBD Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Prachuap part of?
Chonburi FC vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 32% chance of winning, Prachuap a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Chonburi FC and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Prachuap?
Record (8 meetings): Chonburi FC 3W | Draws 2 | Prachuap 3W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Prachuap in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Prachuap (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Chonburi FC's attack at 0.91x the league average against Prachuap's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
32%
3.10
27%
3.76
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.56
1.38
Prachuap xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
31%
3.28
Win to Nil
8%
12.28
13%
7.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.6 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.38 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, Chonburi FC have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 10W 9D 15L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Prachuap's form line: 14W 12D 8L from 34 games, 1.59 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Prachuap are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chonburi FC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Chonburi FC have posted 1.35 PPG from 17 outings (6W 5D 6L).
On the road, Prachuap have gone 4W 6D 7L from 17 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.59 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Prachuap's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.32 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Prachuap in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Early Season
Prachuap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 10W 9D 15L in their last 34 games (1.15 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 14W 12D 8L in their last 34 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Prachuap away?
Chonburi FC's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.35 PPG; Prachuap away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Chonburi FC or Prachuap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chonburi FC have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Prachuap in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Prachuap go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Chonburi FC's record when hosting Prachuap specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Chonburi FC
2
Draws
4
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Prachuap?
From 9 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 3, Prachuap have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Chonburi FC 1-2 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Chonburi FC and Prachuap?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chonburi FC see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 59%, Prachuap 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Chonburi FC) and 53% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC have failed to score in 29% of games; Prachuap in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Prachuap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Chonburi FC's games and 53% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chonburi FC vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 53% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Prachuap tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Prachuap edge out Chonburi FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Chonburi FC 1-2 at OBD Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.19 xG and Prachuap 1.38 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.04 against Prachuap attack 1.02 / defence 0.89, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 32% | Draw 27% | Prachuap 41%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 47%, Prachuap 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Prachuap's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Prachuap arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Prachuap (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.