Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lamphun Warrior make the trip to IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium to face Chonburi FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 April 2027 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Chonburi FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chonburi FC's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Chonburi FC are significantly better at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Lamphun Warrior have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Lamphun Warrior have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Lamphun Warrior are 0.50 PPG clear of Chonburi FC in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (1.30 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across 6 previous meetings, Chonburi FC are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 1 draws in between.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2026, ended 1–0 with Chonburi FC winning.
The historical record gives Chonburi FC a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Chonburi FC — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Lamphun Warrior — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chonburi FC 58% and Lamphun Warrior 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 50% | Lamphun Warrior 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 0.97 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.901 / defence 1.071 | Lamphun Warrior attack 1.163 / defence 0.746. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.456. Lamphun Warrior's defence strength of 0.746 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 36 Chonburi FC games / 37 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 19% | Draw 25% | Lamphun Warrior 56%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 5.26 | Draw 4.00 | Lamphun Warrior 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Lamphun Warrior (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Chonburi FC dominate the H2H record, yet Lamphun Warrior are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Lamphun Warrior are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 60% | Lamphun Warrior 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Apr 2027, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 19% | Draw 25% | Lamphun Warrior 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG Chonburi FC 0.97 / Lamphun Warrior 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 0.901 / def 1.071 | Lamphun Warrior attack 1.163 / def 0.746 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Lamphun Warrior xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Saturday 17 April 2027 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 19% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 56% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Chonburi FC and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (6 meetings): Chonburi FC 4W | Draws 1 | Lamphun Warrior 1W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Lamphun Warrior in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Chonburi FC's attack at 0.90x the league average against Lamphun Warrior's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lamphun Warrior's attack (1.16x) against Chonburi FC's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.81.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.2%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
19%
5.25
25%
4.06
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.79
1.81
Lamphun Warrior xG
5.25
19%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
16%
6.14
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
3%
32.22
21%
4.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 11.2 | 10.2 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.81 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chonburi FC come into this having played 36 games, going 11W 9D 16L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Lamphun Warrior sit at 1.08 PPG from 36 outings (7W 18D 11L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Chonburi FC against 1.08 for Lamphun Warrior. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Chonburi FC's home form reads 6W 5D 7L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Lamphun Warrior have taken 1.11 points per game from 18 outings (4W 8D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.25 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior in 64%.
Last 36 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Early Season
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 11W 9D 16L in their last 36 games (1.17 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 7W 18D 11L in their last 36 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Chonburi FC's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.28 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chonburi FC have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Chonburi FC
1
Draws
1
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Lamphun Warrior?
From 6 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 4, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Chonburi FC 1-0 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Chonburi FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Chonburi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Lamphun Warrior see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 61%, Lamphun Warrior 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Chonburi FC) and 39% (Lamphun Warrior).
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC have failed to score in 28% of games; Lamphun Warrior in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Lamphun Warrior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Chonburi FC's games and 56% of Lamphun Warrior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chonburi FC vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 39% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.