Buriram United 2-3 Sisaket United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Buriram United at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Buriram United vs Sisaket United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Buriram United host Sisaket United at Chang Arena in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 October 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Buriram United stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Buriram United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Buriram United's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Chang Arena this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Sisaket United have recorded 2W 1D 2L from 5 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sisaket United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Buriram United have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Buriram United in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Sisaket United in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Buriram United 60% and Sisaket United 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Buriram United 40% | Sisaket United 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 1.91 xG and Sisaket United 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.181 / defence 0.991 | Sisaket United attack 0.824 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.292. Data: 35 Buriram United games / 5 Sisaket United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Buriram United 57% | Draw 24% | Sisaket United 20%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Sisaket United 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Buriram United are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Buriram United 50% | Sisaket United 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Sisaket United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 57% | Draw 24% | Sisaket United 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG Buriram United 1.91 / Sisaket United 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.181 / def 0.991 | Sisaket United attack 0.824 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Sisaket United xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Sisaket United kick off?
Buriram United vs Sisaket United kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Sisaket United?
Buriram United 2 - 3 Sisaket United.
Where is Buriram United vs Sisaket United being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Sisaket United part of?
Buriram United vs Sisaket United is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Sisaket United?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 57% chance of winning, Sisaket United a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Sisaket United?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Buriram United and Sisaket United will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Sisaket United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Sisaket United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Buriram United and Sisaket United in?
Buriram United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Sisaket United (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Buriram United's attack at 1.18x the league average against Sisaket United's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sisaket United's attack versus Buriram United's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
57%
1.76
24%
4.25
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Buriram United xG
Total xG
2.97
1.05
Sisaket United xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
15%
6.78
Win to Nil
20%
5.07
3%
34.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.4 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Sisaket United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Sisaket United expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Buriram United and 1.05 for Sisaket United, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Sisaket United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 5 outings, Buriram United have picked up 2.60 PPG on a 4W 1D 0L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Buriram United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sisaket United's form line: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games, 1.40 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Sisaket United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Buriram United are the form team by 1.20 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sisaket United.
Goals in Recent Form
Buriram United are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Sisaket United are on 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Buriram United have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Sisaket United in 60%.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Early Season
Sisaket United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Sisaket United in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 4W 1D 0L in their last 5 games (2.60 PPG), while Sisaket United have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
Have Buriram United or Sisaket United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Sisaket United in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 24 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Buriram United
0
Draws
1
Sisaket United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Sisaket United?
From 1 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 0, Sisaket United have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Sisaket United last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2026, when Buriram United 2-3 Sisaket United.
Who has won more matches between Buriram United and Sisaket United?
Sisaket United have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sisaket United see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Buriram United 60%, Sisaket United 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Buriram United) and 40% (Sisaket United).
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Sisaket United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Sisaket United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Buriram United's games and 60% of Sisaket United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Buriram United vs Sisaket United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Buriram United's recent games and 40% of Sisaket United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Buriram United and Sisaket United tend to score early?
Buriram United have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sisaket United in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sisaket United defy the odds to beat Buriram United 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sisaket United beat Buriram United 2-3 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 1.91 xG and Sisaket United 1.05 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Sisaket United outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.18 / defence 0.99 against Sisaket United attack 0.82 / defence 1.11, drawn from 35/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 57% | Draw 24% | Sisaket United 20%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Sisaket United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 40%, Sisaket United 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Buriram United's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Sisaket United's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.60 PPG against 1.40. Form was overturned, with Sisaket United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Buriram United shipped 3 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sisaket United scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.