Buriram United 1-0 Port FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Buriram United at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Buriram United vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 15 as Buriram United welcome Port FC to Chang Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 December 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Buriram United stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Buriram United have posted 8W 1D 1L at Chang Arena — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Port FC — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.50 PPG (Buriram United) versus 2.30 (Port FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Buriram United have won 3, Port FC 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2025, ended 0–1 with Port FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Buriram United in-play and half-time data (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Port FC in-play and half-time data (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Buriram United 54% versus Port FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Buriram United 74% | Port FC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 1.41 xG and Port FC 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.305 / defence 0.856 | Port FC attack 0.939 / defence 0.706. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.203. Buriram United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.305 — their λ of 1.41 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Port FC's defence strength of 0.706 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 Buriram United games / 44 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Buriram United 44% | Draw 33% | Port FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 2.27 | Draw 3.03 | Port FC 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Buriram United at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Buriram United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Buriram United 70% | Port FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Dec 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 44% | Draw 33% | Port FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Buriram United 1.41 / Port FC 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.305 / def 0.856 | Port FC attack 0.939 / def 0.706 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Port FC xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Port FC kick off?
Buriram United vs Port FC kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 14 December 2025 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Port FC?
Buriram United 1 - 0 Port FC.
Where is Buriram United vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Port FC part of?
Buriram United vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 44% chance of winning, Port FC a 23% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Buriram United and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Port FC?
Record (8 meetings): Buriram United 3W | Draws 2 | Port FC 3W.
What form are Buriram United and Port FC in?
Buriram United (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Port FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Buriram United's attack rating (1.30) and Port FC's defence rating (0.71), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Buriram United's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
44%
2.27
33%
2.99
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Buriram United xG
Total xG
2.38
0.97
Port FC xG
2.27
44%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
6%
18.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Buriram United and 0.97 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Buriram United have picked up 2.42 PPG on a 33W 5D 5L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC's form line: 20W 12D 11L from 43 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Buriram United are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Port FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Buriram United have posted 2.50 PPG from 20 outings (16W 2D 2L).
On the road, Port FC have gone 8W 4D 8L from 20 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Buriram United are averaging 2.98 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.72 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Port FC in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 33W 5D 5L in their last 43 games (2.42 PPG), while Port FC have gone 20W 12D 11L in their last 43 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or Port FC away?
Buriram United's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 2.50 PPG; Port FC away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Buriram United or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Port FC in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Buriram United and Port FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Dec 2023, when Port FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Buriram United's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Buriram United
2
Draws
4
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Port FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 4, Port FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Port FC 3-1 Buriram United.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Buriram United 40%, Port FC 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Buriram United) and 40% (Port FC).
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Port FC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Port FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Buriram United's recent matches and 45% of Port FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Buriram United vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Buriram United's recent games and 40% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Buriram United and Port FC tend to score early?
Buriram United have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Port FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Buriram United edge out Port FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Port FC 1-0 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 1.41 xG and Port FC 0.97 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Port FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.30 / defence 0.86 against Port FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.71, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 44% | Draw 33% | Port FC 23%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 74%, Port FC 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Buriram United's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Port FC's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.67. Form held, and they took the win. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.35 scoring average — below par going forward. Port FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.