Yverdon Sport 0-0 Servette FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Servette FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Yverdon Sport host Servette FC at Stade Municipal in Super League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 January 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Yverdon Sport have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Yverdon Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Yverdon Sport's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Stade Municipal this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Yverdon Sport are significantly better at Stade Municipal than their overall form suggests.
Servette FC — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Servette FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Servette FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Servette FC's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Yverdon Sport's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Yverdon Sport, 2 for Servette FC and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Jul 2024, ended 2–3 with Servette FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Yverdon Sport trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Servette FC trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Yverdon Sport 56% versus Servette FC 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yverdon Sport 56% | Servette FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yverdon Sport 1.17 xG and Servette FC 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yverdon Sport attack 0.773 / defence 1.084 | Servette FC attack 1.027 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.242. Yverdon Sport's attack strength of 0.773 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 Yverdon Sport games / 52 Servette FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 30% | Draw 29% | Servette FC 40%. Fair-value odds: Yverdon Sport 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Servette FC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Servette FC as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Servette FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Yverdon Sport 40% | Servette FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade Municipal • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Jan 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 30% | Draw 29% | Servette FC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Yverdon Sport 1.17 / Servette FC 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Yverdon Sport attack 0.773 / def 1.084 | Servette FC attack 1.027 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Servette FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Yverdon Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Servette FC xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC kick off?
Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 25 January 2025 at Stade Municipal.
What was the final score in Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC?
Yverdon Sport 0 - 0 Servette FC.
Where is Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade Municipal.
What competition is Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC part of?
Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC?
Our statistical model gives Yverdon Sport a 30% chance of winning, Servette FC a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Servette FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Yverdon Sport and Servette FC will score (BTTS).
Will Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and Servette FC?
Record (4 meetings): Yverdon Sport 2W | Draws 0 | Servette FC 2W.
What form are Yverdon Sport and Servette FC in?
Yverdon Sport (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Servette FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Yverdon Sport's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Servette FC's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Servette FC's attack versus Yverdon Sport's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Servette FC Win
30%
3.29
29%
3.43
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Yverdon Sport xG
Total xG
2.55
1.38
Servette FC xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
8%
13.10
13%
7.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.8 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Yverdon Sport and Servette FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Yverdon Sport and 1.38 for Servette FC, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Yverdon Sport come into this having played 57 games, going 17W 13D 27L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Yverdon Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Servette FC sit at 1.65 PPG from 57 outings (26W 16D 15L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Servette FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Servette FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Yverdon Sport — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Yverdon Sport's home form reads 15W 5D 8L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Yverdon Sport are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Servette FC have taken 1.36 points per game from 28 outings (10W 8D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yverdon Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Yverdon Sport are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Servette FC are on 1.56 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Servette FC in 63%.
Last 57 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yverdon Sport
Blended
Servette FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yverdon Sport and Servette FC in coming into this match?
Yverdon Sport have gone 17W 13D 27L in their last 57 games (1.12 PPG), while Servette FC have gone 26W 16D 15L in their last 57 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yverdon Sport at home or Servette FC away?
Yverdon Sport's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yverdon Sport at home: 1.79 PPG; Servette FC away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2023, when Yverdon Sport won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Yverdon Sport's record when hosting Servette FC specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Yverdon Sport
1
Draws
2
Servette FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and Servette FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Yverdon Sport have won 3, Servette FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Yverdon Sport and Servette FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Servette FC 2-3 Yverdon Sport.
Who has won more matches between Yverdon Sport and Servette FC?
Yverdon Sport have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Servette FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Yverdon Sport 54%, Servette FC 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Yverdon Sport) and 46% (Servette FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Yverdon Sport have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yverdon Sport home games / Servette FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yverdon Sport play Servette FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Yverdon Sport's games and 64% of Servette FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Yverdon Sport's matches and 46% of Servette FC's.
Do Yverdon Sport and Servette FC tend to score early?
Yverdon Sport have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Servette FC in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Yverdon Sport's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yverdon Sport and Servette FC finished level at 0-0 at Stade Municipal, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yverdon Sport 1.17 xG and Servette FC 1.38 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Yverdon Sport fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Servette FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yverdon Sport attack 0.77 / defence 1.08 against Servette FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.07, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yverdon Sport 30% | Draw 29% | Servette FC 40%, with Servette FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yverdon Sport 56%, Servette FC 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Servette FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Servette FC arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Servette FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.