FC Basel 1893 2-1 FC ST. Gallen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Basel 1893 at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
St. Jakob-Park plays host to FC Basel 1893 versus FC ST. Gallen in Super League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 20 October 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
FC Basel 1893 (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Basel 1893's home record at St. Jakob-Park: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FC ST. Gallen have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC ST. Gallen's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for FC Basel 1893 against 1.40 for FC ST. Gallen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Basel 1893 lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2024, ended 1–0 with FC Basel 1893 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
FC Basel 1893 half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
FC ST. Gallen half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Basel 1893 49% versus FC ST. Gallen 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Basel 1893 47% | FC ST. Gallen 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 1.19 xG and FC ST. Gallen 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 0.821 / defence 0.897 | FC ST. Gallen attack 0.947 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.168. Data: 42 FC Basel 1893 games / 42 FC ST. Gallen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 40% | Draw 29% | FC ST. Gallen 31%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | FC ST. Gallen 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Basel 1893 as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Basel 1893 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC Basel 1893 50% | FC ST. Gallen 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: St. Jakob-Park • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 40% | Draw 29% | FC ST. Gallen 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG FC Basel 1893 1.19 / FC ST. Gallen 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: FC Basel 1893 attack 0.821 / def 0.897 | FC ST. Gallen attack 0.947 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.528 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
FC Basel 1893 xG
Expected Goals
0.99
FC ST. Gallen xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen kick off?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at St. Jakob-Park.
What was the final score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen?
FC Basel 1893 2 - 1 FC ST. Gallen.
Where is FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen being played?
The match is being played at St. Jakob-Park.
What competition is FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen part of?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our statistical model gives FC Basel 1893 a 40% chance of winning, FC ST. Gallen a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen?
Record (3 meetings): FC Basel 1893 2W | Draws 0 | FC ST. Gallen 1W.
What form are FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen in?
FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC Basel 1893's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against FC ST. Gallen's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — FC ST. Gallen's attack (0.95x) against FC Basel 1893's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
40%
2.48
29%
3.43
31%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
FC Basel 1893 xG
Total xG
2.18
0.99
FC ST. Gallen xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.28
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
31%
3.28
Win to Nil
15%
6.67
9%
10.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 11.2 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.3 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 0.99 for FC ST. Gallen, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Basel 1893 come into this having played 47 games, going 17W 11D 19L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W. The sample for FC Basel 1893 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC ST. Gallen sit at 1.51 PPG from 47 outings (20W 11D 16L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for FC ST. Gallen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for FC Basel 1893 against 1.51 for FC ST. Gallen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FC Basel 1893's home form reads 9W 6D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, FC ST. Gallen have taken 1.04 points per game from 23 outings (6W 6D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.51 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC ST. Gallen's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Basel 1893 are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; FC ST. Gallen are on 1.64 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Basel 1893
Blended
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen in coming into this match?
FC Basel 1893 have gone 17W 11D 19L in their last 47 games (1.32 PPG), while FC ST. Gallen have gone 20W 11D 16L in their last 47 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Basel 1893 at home or FC ST. Gallen away?
FC Basel 1893's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Basel 1893 at home: 1.43 PPG; FC ST. Gallen away: 1.04 PPG.
Have FC Basel 1893 or FC ST. Gallen been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Basel 1893 have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, FC ST. Gallen in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 14 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
FC ST. Gallen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC ST. Gallen won 3-0 on 8 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Basel 1893 have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC ST. Gallen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Basel 1893
3
Draws
4
FC ST. Gallen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Basel 1893 have won 3, FC ST. Gallen have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2026, when FC Basel 1893 1-3 FC ST. Gallen.
Who has won more matches between FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Basel 1893 48%, FC ST. Gallen 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 39% for FC Basel 1893 and 30% for FC ST. Gallen.
On the defensive side: FC Basel 1893 keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; FC Basel 1893 have failed to score in 26% of games; FC ST. Gallen in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Basel 1893 home games / FC ST. Gallen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Basel 1893 play FC ST. Gallen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of FC Basel 1893's recent matches and 48% of FC ST. Gallen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of FC Basel 1893's recent games and 30% of FC ST. Gallen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen tend to score early?
FC Basel 1893 have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, FC ST. Gallen in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Basel 1893 edge out FC ST. Gallen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Basel 1893 beat FC ST. Gallen 2-1 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.19 xG and FC ST. Gallen 0.99 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 0.82 / defence 0.90 against FC ST. Gallen attack 0.95 / defence 0.95, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 40% | Draw 29% | FC ST. Gallen 31%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 47%, FC ST. Gallen 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Basel 1893 1.32 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Basel 1893 win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.