BSC Young Boys 1-0 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BSC Young Boys at 78% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this BSC Young Boys vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy make the trip to Stadion Wankdorf to face BSC Young Boys in Super League, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Wednesday 6 December 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
BSC Young Boys (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for BSC Young Boys, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BSC Young Boys's home record at Stadion Wankdorf: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Super League appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — BSC Young Boys are significantly better at Stadion Wankdorf than their overall form suggests.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have gone 2W 1D 5L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward BSC Young Boys. A 1.10 PPG lead over Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (1.80 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
BSC Young Boys half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — BSC Young Boys 71% and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BSC Young Boys 59% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BSC Young Boys 2.89 xG and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BSC Young Boys attack 1.373 / defence 0.765 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.850 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.817 / away 1.320. BSC Young Boys carry an above-average attack strength of 1.373 — their λ of 2.89 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. BSC Young Boys's defence rating of 0.765 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 BSC Young Boys games / 15 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BSC Young Boys 78% | Draw 14% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 7%. Fair-value odds: BSC Young Boys 1.28 | Draw 7.14 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 14.29. The model has a clear lean to BSC Young Boys (78%) — a 71pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates BSC Young Boys as the most likely outcome at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: BSC Young Boys 80% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BSC Young Boys vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Wankdorf • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 Dec 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BSC Young Boys 78% | Draw 14% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 55% | xG BSC Young Boys 2.89 / Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: BSC Young Boys attack 1.373 / def 0.765 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.850 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.817 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: BSC Young Boys (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.89
BSC Young Boys xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy xG
55%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BSC Young Boys vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy kick off?
BSC Young Boys vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 6 December 2023 at Stadion Wankdorf.
What was the final score in BSC Young Boys vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
BSC Young Boys 1 - 0 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
Where is BSC Young Boys vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wankdorf.
What competition is BSC Young Boys vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy part of?
BSC Young Boys vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win BSC Young Boys vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Our statistical model gives BSC Young Boys a 78% chance of winning, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy a 7% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making BSC Young Boys the favourite.
Will both teams score in BSC Young Boys vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both BSC Young Boys and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy will score (BTTS).
Will BSC Young Boys vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between BSC Young Boys and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are BSC Young Boys and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in?
BSC Young Boys (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
BSC Young Boys's attacking strength (1.37x league average) is weighed against Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.89. Flip it around — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's attack (0.85x) against BSC Young Boys's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 51/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 9.8%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BSC Young Boys Win
78%
1.28
14%
6.93
7%
13.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.89
BSC Young Boys xG
Total xG
3.75
0.86
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy xG
1.28
78%
Home win
6.93
14%
Draw
13.40
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
6%
18.05
Win to Nil
33%
3.02
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.5 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BSC Young Boys vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are BSC Young Boys and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy expected to score?
The model projects 2.89 expected goals for BSC Young Boys and 0.86 for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for BSC Young Boys vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
BSC Young Boys's recent record stands at 9W 5D 3L from 17 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for BSC Young Boys is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 8L across 17 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours BSC Young Boys by 0.88 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stade Lausanne-Ouchy heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, BSC Young Boys have managed 6W 2D 0L from 8 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.88 PPG overall — BSC Young Boys are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's away record stands at 2W 1D 5L across 8 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BSC Young Boys come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
BSC Young Boys are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are on 1.35 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BSC Young Boys have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in 65%.
Last 17 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BSC Young Boys
Blended
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BSC Young Boys and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in coming into this match?
BSC Young Boys have gone 9W 5D 3L in their last 17 games (1.88 PPG), while Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have gone 4W 5D 8L in their last 17 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BSC Young Boys at home or Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away?
BSC Young Boys's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BSC Young Boys at home: 2.50 PPG; Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: BSC Young Boys have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, BSC Young Boys have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
3
BSC Young Boys
0
Draws
0
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BSC Young Boys and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
From 3 meetings on record, BSC Young Boys have won 3, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did BSC Young Boys and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2024, when BSC Young Boys 1-0 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
Who has won more matches between BSC Young Boys and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
BSC Young Boys have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
BSC Young Boys are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BSC Young Boys 75%, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for BSC Young Boys and 62% for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BSC Young Boys home games / Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BSC Young Boys play Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of BSC Young Boys's games and 50% of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BSC Young Boys vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of BSC Young Boys's matches and 62% of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's.
Do BSC Young Boys and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy tend to score early?
BSC Young Boys have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as BSC Young Boys edge out Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BSC Young Boys beat Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1-0 at Stadion Wankdorf, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BSC Young Boys 2.89 xG and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0.86 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. BSC Young Boys fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BSC Young Boys attack 1.37 / defence 0.77 against Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.85 / defence 1.16, drawn from 51/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BSC Young Boys 78% | Draw 14% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 7%, with BSC Young Boys to win its most likely call at 78%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BSC Young Boys 59%, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BSC Young Boys's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, BSC Young Boys arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. BSC Young Boys (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.